LUBBOCK — High Plains regional business sales are expected to drop by $500 million a year if impending boll weevil populations are left unchecked, a report released today estimates.
The drop will come from a 30 percent loss of cotton production and this translates into a decline of more than $190 million a year in gross farm income and 9,000 fewer jobs in the region. This also suggests the loss of up to a third of the cotton gins in the region.
“Evidence indicates that the boll weevil has firmly established on the Texas High Plains and can survive harsh winters with existing habitat,” said Dr. Ron Lacewell, agricultural economist and assistant vice chancellor of agriculture at Texas A&M.
This comes from a study completed this week by the 18-member Texas A&M/Texas Tech Boll Weevil Assessment Task Force.
Though the cotton boll weevil has plagued growers across the southern U.S. growing region for more than 100 years, the Texas High Plains has been relatively free of the pest due mainly to the dry climate, harsh winters and an effective diapause program since 1964 which kept the insect from overwintering there.
But in recent years, researchers, county extension agents and crop consultants have reported seeing boll weevils in alarming numbers.
“Compelling data and experiences have accumulated that indicate the boll weevil has adapted to the High Plains,” said Lacewell.
The analysis used information from agricultural economists, entomologists and consultants to determine the potential weevil infestations up to 10 years in the future. These projections were
Task force members didn’t address the question of a region-wide control program. Their results simply indicate that the boll weevil left unchecked on the High Plains leaves the area at an increasingly competitive disadvantage for cotton production, Lacewell said. The 30 High Plains counties annually produce about three million bales of cotton, some 20 percent of the U.S. crop.
“Serious economic damages are expected as far north as Floyd, Hale, Lamb, Briscoe and Bailey counties,” Lacewell said.
Dr. James Leser, entomologist with the Texas Agricultural Extension Service, said trap catches by the end of 1996 had increased almost 40 percent over those captured in traps by the end of 1995.
John R. Hunter, Texas Tech professor, consultant and task force member, noted that he began using boll weevil traps as part of his field scouting technique about three years ago near Lubbock. Since then, he has seen a steady increase in the weevil population.
“It is obvious that the boll weevil cost at least $100 per acre to some of my clients in 1996,” he said.
Though the project strongly suggests serious economic impacts in the absence of a regional weevil control program, the task force acknowledged that the study has some limitations.
“The movement and adaptation of the boll weevil is a biological phenomenon and no one can accurately predict how quickly this insect will move across the High Plains,” Leser said.
Dr. Don Rummel, Texas Agricultural Experiment Station entomologist, noted that the study also considered only current technology since it is not known at this time what future developments might include, and the analysis used weather patterns for the past 10 years as an indication of what weather will be like in the future.
Due to uncertainty on the rate of future movement and levels of infestation of the boll weevil, a worst case and best case situation also was evaluated, according to Dr. Don Ethridge and Dr. Eduardo Segarra, agricultural economists with Texas Tech University.
The best case situation showed a reduction in regional business activity of $57 million compared to an $820 million loss for the worst case.
On a more optimistic note, the developments from biotechnology, cotton genetics and integrated pest management (IPM) practices can help reduce the potential cotton losses on the Texas High Plains by the boll weevil, Lacewell noted.
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