Production outlook optimistic for Texas cotton amid low prices

Production expectations are good for Texas cotton, but low prices may stymie positive outcomes for growers.

John Robinson, Ph.D., Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, said growing conditions are much better than in recent years due to drought, but prices are low and could decline further.

In 2022, Texas cotton growers experienced widespread crop losses, Robinson said. Two out of three acres planted with cotton were abandoned due to unrelenting drought.

Subsequent years produced below-average results for growers, he said. In 2023 and 2024, winter and springtime rains provided decent planting conditions before arid weather set in. High temperatures and little to no rain led to lower yields in dryland and irrigated fields, while late-season rains delayed harvests in some areas and hurt lint quality.

“Most cotton growers across Texas have taken a punch in the gut the last few years and are looking for that season to make up for it,” he said. “Conditions around the state should provide that kind of optimism, but unfortunately, the other important profit factor – prices – are pretty weak.”

Cotton prices slide

A June 30 report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated national cotton acreage would be 10.1 million acres, down 10% compared to last year. Cotton acres in Texas, the nation’s leading producer, were expected to be down over 4% — 5.7 million acres compared to 5.95 million acres in 2024.

Robinson said low prices, coupled with wet weather and delayed plantings in the Mississippi Delta region, likely factored into the decline. The lower acre estimates did not result in a price boost at market.

Before the report was released, there were some expectations that cotton plantings could be closer to 9 million acres.

Cotton prices have taken a long slide from 80-85 cents per pound since March 2024 and settled below 70 cents per pound since May. December futures were trading at 67.8 cents per pound on July 7.

Robinson said the acreage estimate, coupled with higher-than-expected ending stockpiles of cotton and speculative commodity selling, continue to factor into a weaker market.

“Nothing bullish about the cotton market has changed the speculative short position of those traders who expect the price to go lower still,” he said. “People were expecting the planted acres to drop further than they did, which would have made the ending stocks outcome a lot tighter, which is fundamentally supportive of better prices. But the reverse happened.”

Production potential is there

Robinson said growers are hoping above-average yields can compensate for lower prices.

Crop productivity will be highly weather-dependent from now until harvesting begins. Some cotton acres have received too much moisture in recent weeks and need sun and warmer temperatures to accumulate heat units and progress. Texas dryland cotton acres and most irrigated acres in the northern half of the state will need timely rains in July and August.

Harvests in South Texas typically begin in August, with the Texas High Plains maturing into November and harvests lasting into January.

“It’s good that we have moisture, but there is a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “The potential for good production is there; now we just need some conditions to align.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Central

Scattered rain fell throughout the district, with some areas receiving up to 15 inches while others experienced only drizzly conditions. Minor flooding was reported. Topsoil was drying out very quickly, but pastures remained green. Corn silage harvest started and was nearing completion in some areas while other producers were cutting and baling hay. Producers were hopeful the moisture would benefit late-season forages once fields began to dry out. Yield potential appeared favorable, and pest activity was down. The cattle market remained steady, and sheep and goat prices continued to hold firm.

Rolling Plains

Pastures and fields continued to look excellent. Intermittent rains were very beneficial for the young cotton crop. The only negative effect of the rains was an increase in weed pressure above normal levels. Control measures have been difficult due to the wet conditions. Hay and sorghum crops continued to progress positively, and livestock were in great shape as the summer heat approached.

Coastal Bend

Scattered showers continued over parts of the district. Rain kept producers out of the field, but conditions improved, and harvest resumed by week’s end. Cotton needed rainfall, and supplemental irrigation was underway where possible. Corn was drying down, and harvest may begin soon. Sorghum harvest was nearing completion, and rice fields were being drained in preparation for harvest. Hay harvest continued with fair to good yields. Range and pasture conditions were excellent, and most cattle were in good shape.

East

Rising temperatures caused some areas to dry out, while other areas continued to get rainfall. Hay producers in Anderson and Cherokee counties were spraying for weeds and delayed by rains. Pasture and rangeland conditions were good to excellent. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate. Water levels in some areas remained high in lakes, ponds and rivers. Cattle markets were mostly strong. Livestock were in fair to good condition, but horn flies were a problem. Grasshopper numbers were increasing. Wild pig control was underway.

Southeast

Soil moisture levels ranged from adequate to surplus. Multiple counties reported consistent rainfall maintained strong soil moisture levels, promoting lush forage and healthy pasture conditions. Rice fields advanced steadily with some nearing harvest. Row crops were in good to excellent condition. Sorghum was coloring, and some fields were being harvested. Sunflowers were harvested, and soybean fields emerged. Recent breaks in the rain allowed fields to dry, and producers sprayed fungicides to reduce disease pressure. Wet conditions posed challenges for hay production in some areas. Despite these hurdles, some producers managed to harvest hay successfully, reporting yields of 4 to 5 bales per acre. Pest levels remained relatively low across the district, though some counties noted increases in flies and grasshoppers due to excessive moisture. Conditions were particularly beneficial for livestock, with several counties noting improvements in herd health as calving wound down and grazing quality increased. Overall, pasture ratings were poor to excellent across the district.

South Plains

Widespread, slow and steady rain fell for about four days across most of the district. Amounts varied from 1.5-6 inches. Rain continued over the long holiday weekend. The rainfall should help all crops. Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were high compared to previous years. Cotton stages ranged from the three-leaf stage to squaring. Weed control continued to be a challenge due to the moisture. Producers were trying to apply fertilizer. Pastures were in good to excellent condition. Livestock were in good condition.

Panhandle

Overall soil moisture reported from adequate to surplus. Some counties reported wheat harvest was complete. Overall crop conditions were fair to good. Considerable acres of late-planted corn and sorghum were no-till seeded into remaining small grain forage. Recent rainfall provided suitable soil moisture conditions for warm-season grasses. Planted cotton was off to a good start, making notable progress in growth and development. Improved conditions of range and improved pastures resulted in more and higher-quality forage available to grazing livestock. Pasture and range conditions were fair to good.

North

Temperatures were in the low to mid-90s. Scattered rainfall provided moisture to some areas. The subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were short to adequate. Corn conditions were mostly good, and fields were in the silking and dough stage. Oats were harvested. Peanuts and rice were in fair and good condition. Sorghum was in good condition, with most fields in the coloring, headed and mature stages. Soybean conditions were mostly good, with a minimal portion in very poor to poor condition, and crop stages ranged from emerged to blooming. Sunflowers were being planted, and some counties were harvesting winter wheat. Additionally, the planting of okra occurred, and sweet potatoes displayed good progress. Later-planted crops in drier areas were struggling with moisture stress. Hay was being cut and baled. Small numbers of headworms were seen in sorghum, and a slight uptick of grasshoppers was noted in the field edges and pastures. Pasture and range conditions were fair to good. Livestock were in fair to good condition.

Far West

Cooler temperatures and rainy conditions prevailed. Rainfall totals ranged from 2.5-6 inches. Rain fell slowly in the eastern parts of the district with very little runoff. This should help recharge moisture indexes in cropland and pastures. Hard and fast rains were reported in western areas, with some counties experiencing damaging floods. Cotton and sorghum should begin to look better as heat units increase. More cotton was beginning to square and looked better after wind damage. Replanted cotton was emerging after the rain. Winds subsided, and growers were expected to begin spraying for weeds. Insect activity was low. Corn was in the dough to dent stage, and some sorghum was heading out. Melon harvest continued and was expected to pick up significantly. Pastures were expected to green up considerably after rain. Supplementation of hay and feed continued for the foreseeable future.

West Central

Good rainfall occurred in areas with improved soil moisture conditions, while other counties received heavy and damaging rainfall. Five-day rain totals ranged from 4-25 inches. Extreme flooding occurred along river and creek banks and low-lying fields and pastures held water. Stock tanks were full, and soils were saturated. Roads and agricultural infrastructure, including fences were damaged. Producers reported some livestock and hay losses. Soils needed to dry some for producers to access fields and pastures. Some cotton was washed out and some was expected to drown out behind terraces. But overall, cotton was in good shape, and early planted fields were in excellent condition. Wheat harvest was complete. Early planted sorghum was maturing quickly, and the rain and cooler temperatures helped later-planted fields. Corn was also maturing and improving under cloudy cool days and light rains. Grazing conditions were expected to improve in pastures and rangelands. Range and pasture conditions were already good to excellent in some areas. Livestock conditions were good, and body conditions were improving. Cattle demand for all classes at sale barns continued to be good, and prices were steady to higher. Some grasshoppers were seen in pastures and cutworms were in blooming mesquite trees.

Southwest

Skies were mostly cloudy, with rainfall averaging around 6 inches, with most of it falling at the end of the week and over the weekend. Temperatures were cooler. Torrential rainfall in the Guadalupe River basin led to catastrophic flooding. Soils were saturated. Crops continued to mature and forage sorghum harvest was expected to begin soon. Fungal infestations continued to rise in drought-stressed plants. Producers reported slight improvements to pastures and rangeland due to recent moisture. The rain stopped some hay production in other areas, while some continued to put away the first cutting of hay. Hay yields were excellent to average, and second cuttings were expected to begin soon. Fewer livestock were being sold as grazing improved. Cattle and sheep prices were extremely good. Livestock looked good on pasture and stock ponds were full. Rivers were flowing.

South

Numerous showers delivered 1-4 inches of rainfall to most areas. Recent rainfall improved all conditions. Topsoil and subsoil conditions were adequate. Conditions turned hot and humid. The 10-day forecast showed dry conditions, which should help farmers get back into their fields. Peanut planting was winding down. Strawberry fields were being prepared, and vegetable crops continued to produce. Corn and sorghum harvests should continue once fields dry. Grain sorghum producers hope the rains did not negatively affect the grain quality. Preliminary sorghum harvest yields were 4,500 pounds per acre. Hay cutting and baling should resume with sunny conditions. Cotton fields continued to develop in stages, ranging from blooming to setting bolls. Watermelons and cantaloupes were being harvested. Citrus will not require irrigation for a few weeks. The rain also benefited pecan orchards. Sesame crops responded well to the moisture and were expected to produce above-average yields. Worm pressure was reported in sunflowers. Livestock and wildlife were in good conditions. Beef cattle supplementation slowed as range and pasture conditions improved. Cattle prices remained high. Feed costs were still high.