Texas A&M agricultural economist weighs in on summer meat prices
Report predicts price stability for most meats, with beef impacted by emerging supply concerns
Texas shoppers looking for beef options may notice rising prices, but they should expect pork and chicken prices to remain relatively steady for the rest of summer.
The Texas A&M University Food Price Predictor: Summer 2025 Meat Prices report released earlier this summer by the Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Department of Agricultural Economics projects modest price changes for most meat cuts from May to October.
However, a looming threat from the New World screwworm is disrupting beef markets and driving prices higher than initially forecast. The Summer 2025 Meat Prices report, authored by a team of Texas A&M economists originally predicted modest declines in beef prices, thanks to stable feed and fuel costs, as well as more efficient cattle processing.
Lead author Simon Somogyi, Ph.D., Dr. Kerry Litzenberg Sales and Economics Endowed Chair and incoming head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, however, said rising concerns about the New World screwworm, a flesh-eating parasitic pest, are tightening cattle supplies further and leading to unexpected price spikes.
Predictions based on trends
This 2025 report used machine learning models and historical price trends along with new real-time retail data from analytics firm Numerator, Somogyi said. The report’s co-authors were David Anderson, Ph.D., professor and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service livestock and food product marketing specialist; Yong Liu, Ph.D., assistant professor; and Weifang Liang, a doctoral student.
The goal of the report is to give the meat industry and consumers a clearer picture of what to expect as they plan meals and manage their food budgets throughout the peak grilling season, Somogyi said.
Despite the setback for beef, prices for pork and poultry remain relatively flat. Pork chops could rise slightly by up to 3.6%, while boneless skinless chicken breast may increase just over 1%, according to the report.
Somogyi noted that, as with the screwworm concerns, any potential production issues that might raise prices in the future will have to work their way through the meat production supply chain before being felt by consumers.
“There’s always a lag between production issues and what we see at the grocery store,” he said. “The impact of the screwworm on meat counter prices at the grocery store will take some time, and we are still confident about our predictions for the grilling season.”
Ground beef, brisket lead beef price forecasts
Before the New World screwworm threat, the forecast called for ground beef prices to drop between 0.9% and 6.1%, with brisket prices possibly falling by as much as 6.8%. Ribeye and sirloin steaks were expected to see smaller shifts, holding near current levels or declining modestly.
But prices for some cuts are now bucking those projections.
“We’re still seeing beef prices flatten overall, but with growing uncertainty,” Somogyi said. “The screwworm threat could reduce herd sizes and limit supply, which inevitably leads to higher retail prices, however it will take some months to see that impact at the grocery store.”
Consumers urged to stay flexible
Somogyi encouraged consumers to monitor sales, consider bulk purchases when prices dip, and invest in a good freezer to store the extra meat.
“Buying in bulk when you see a good price can be a smart way to save over the season,” he said. “Grocers can ‘loss-lead’, which is a practice where they drop prices at or below cost for certain items, like certain cuts of meat, to entice customers to their stores. They then make up those loses from higher margins on the other goods you buy, so it balances out for them. So, screen the catalogues and look online for meat deals and buy up when prices are low and freeze what you don’t eat.”
He also noted that retail prices do not always reflect supply chain conditions. Overstock, delayed shipments or short-term promotions can cause sudden price changes at the retail level.
Looking ahead, Somogyi said the overall meat market appears to be stabilizing. Imports are helping supplement beef supplies, poultry production remains flexible and consumer spending has leveled out as inflation concerns ease. Still, he said market watchers should continue tracking trade policy, disease threats and evolving consumer behavior.
