Drought conditions intensify across Texas

Texas agriculture producers have experienced a reversal of fortune when it comes to rainfall and soil moisture over the past six months.

Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service specialists and county agents are reporting widespread drought conditions with symptoms ranging from ungerminated wheat fields and declining rangeland conditions to low water levels in stock ponds due to unseasonably warm temperatures and little rain since July.

Juan Anciso, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension horticulture program leader and associate head of the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Sciences, Weslaco; and Kevin Heflin, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist and assistant professor, Canyon, and Ronnie Schnell, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension state cropping system specialist and professor, Bryan-College Station, both in the Texas A&M Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, shared similar reports of warm, dry conditions in their part of the state.

Soil moisture conditions in the Texas High Plains, North, Central and West Texas regions continue to decline. The lack of moisture has left cool-season forages stunted, but producers are hopeful that timely rainfall will arrive to save them and set the stage for spring planting windows.

Also, long-term drought in South Texas and northern Mexico has affected watersheds that feed the critical irrigation reservoirs of Lake Amistad and Falcon Lake, raising concerns about water scarcity in the Rio Grande Valley, a major production region for the state and nation.

Record dry spell grips Texas

The U.S. Drought Monitor showed 73% of the state exhibited no signs of abnormal dryness on July 29, 2025. By Oct. 21, less than 11% of the state reported no abnormal conditions. Rains in early December improved conditions for dry parts of the state, but the relief was only temporary as above-normal temperatures set in and additional rains became sparse.

The drought monitor map for Texas on Jan. 15 showed that more than 91% of the state was experiencing some level of dryness, with 63% in drought conditions.

Persistent above-normal temperatures and among one of the driest six-month periods on record have accelerated drought conditions across much of the state, said John Nielsen-Gammon, Ph.D., Texas state climatologist and Regents Fellow in the Texas A&M College of Arts and Sciences Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

Since July, areas around Austin and San Antonio experienced the driest six-month period on record, while much of the southern half of the state ranked among the top 10 driest over that period.

Long-term trends show Texas has missed key seasonal moisture, he said.

September through October, historically one of the state’s wettest periods, has shown rainfall declines since 2000, removing the opportunity to restore soil moisture profiles going into winter.

Nielsen-Gammon said the La Niña weather pattern, which brings above-normal temperatures and reduced rainfall chances to Texas, could be on its last legs, and that a neutral pattern could emerge in February.

“A switch to a neutral pattern drives equal chances of rain from April onward, although the Climate Prediction Center has enhanced chances of dry conditions next fall,” he said. “Warmer temperatures are in all the outlooks.”

Texas crop outlook weakens without rain

Schnell said spotty, insignificant rainfall has left crop fields in the Blacklands region short on available moisture for cool-season crops and upcoming spring planting windows. Many small grain fields are struggling to survive, but the lack of moisture is also negatively impacting weeds.

He expects commodity prices and input costs to be a greater influence on farmers’ cropping decisions, but the lack of moisture could delay planting if rain does not arrive soon.

“We were dry throughout most of the fall, and now in the new year the drought has intensified in most areas,” he said. “The deep soil moisture profile is probably not good in a lot of areas. We need rain for the upcoming planting, and we need consistent rain to recharge the soil.”

Heflin reported a similar lack of meaningful rainfall since September that has left late-planted wheat fields in the High Plains vulnerable and some fields still not fully germinated. He worries dryland wheat could suffer stand losses and wind erosion could be a problem for growers going into spring planting without rain in the next few weeks.

Producers remain hopeful because they faced a similar outlook last year before timely, evenly distributed 1-1.5-inch rains throughout the summer led to fantastic dryland crops, Heflin said.

“The lack of rain has been exacerbated by the very warm winter,” he said. “Aside from the lack of productivity in wheat due to moisture stress and concerns about wind erosion, we’re seeing weeds like kochia already.”

South Texas water supplies tighten

Anciso said producers in South Texas were “plugging away at the bare minimum” of water and soil moisture but hopeful that conditions might improve.

U.S. water capacities at Amistad and Falcon reservoirs, which provide irrigation water for crops in the Rio Grande Valley, remained critically low at 35% and 18%, respectively. An anticipated 202,000 acre-feet allotment of water from Mexico on Dec. 15 has not yet materialized.

Some vegetable producers are buying additional irrigation allotments to keep their fields productive, Anciso said. Cool-season vegetables are progressing well and acreage is comparable to last year.

Anciso said the lack of soil moisture is delaying planting of some triticale and ryegrass windrows in watermelon fields. Citrus growers could face water challenges as orchards approach peak irrigation demand from May to September as fruit fills out.

“These drought conditions and the water supplies make the situation pretty rough for us,” he said. “Growers remain optimistic, but we need rainfall and a lot of rainfall in the right places.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Panhandle

Hot, dry and windy conditions persisted across the district. Overall, soil moisture was very short to adequate. Small-grain crops emerged and were growing; however, additional moisture was needed to replenish the topsoil moisture. Supplemental irrigation was not keeping up with water demand. Producers performed field tillage and fertilizer application across most fields. Pasture and range conditions were very poor to good, and winter wheat conditions were mostly fair.

South Plains

The district remained very dry with windy conditions. Temperatures varied but were above average for January. Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were low. Moisture was needed for pastures and croplands. Producers were preparing for the upcoming crop season by irrigating fields. Winter wheat was in poor to fair condition. Pastures and range were in poor to fair condition. Cattle were in fair to good condition, depending on supplemental feeding and winter grazing.

Rolling Plains

Dry, windy conditions persisted, intensifying drought impacts across the district. Overall, producers emphasized an urgent need for rain or snow as extremely dry conditions and high winds continued to stress crops, pasture and water resources. Winter feeding programs, including supplemental hay, continued as forage quality remained poor and tank water levels declined. Winter wheat conditions were highly variable, with some fields failing to emerge or experiencing significant stand losses. Other areas reported wheat being utilized for grazing with no rust issues observed. Prospects for spring wheat grazing remained very poor in most areas. Livestock conditions were generally holding steady, with calving season underway and hay supplies currently abundant.

East

High winds and above average temperatures caused drought conditions in many counties. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short to very short. Little rainfall was received, and counties like Houston and Shelby were placed under a burn ban. Cool-season forages struggled due to above-normal temperatures and lack of rain. Pasture and range conditions were fair. Wild pig control efforts were underway.

Far West

Dry conditions continued with above-normal temperatures in some areas and much cooler temperatures in others. Recent weather patterns brought temperatures at or slightly below freezing, accompanied by light rainfall in some parts of the district. One county reported more than half an inch of rainfall. Pastures had still not gone dormant in warmer areas, but most were bare. Winter wheat was in poor condition. Livestock were in good condition and performing well. The late pecan harvest was underway with above-average yields reported. Row crop farmers were preparing land for cultivation. Water was expected to be an issue again this season. The Elephant Butte reservoir was at a record low, which will greatly impact farmers in the region. Fire risk was elevated due to dry grass and windy conditions.

West Central

Dry conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures continued across most areas, with drought returning. Nighttime temperatures were in the low 30s with daytime highs in the 50s to 70s. Many counties reported little to no rainfall for more than a month. Some areas received only trace amounts of rain, while parts of eastern San Saba County received almost 1 inch. Fires were a concern in some counties. Winter wheat conditions were poor and/or declining in many areas due to drought stress. Some counties reported good wheat conditions, but moisture was needed in all fields. Pastures and rangeland were declining and in mostly poor to fair condition. Some areas reported good winter grass green-up and decent grazing availability. Ranchers were feeding hay and cubes to maintain cattle body condition. Yearlings were doing well in some areas. Cattle markets were active with strong markets and steady to higher prices across classes.

Central

Drought conditions continued across the district. Soil was very dry with higher winds and warmer temperatures. Range and pastures were looking fair to good. Cool-season pasture conditions were poor due to the lack of rainfall. Stock tanks were low. Wheat and oats continued to look decent given the limited rainfall. Dry, milder conditions were causing concerns about vernalization. Leaf rust was observed in multiple fields throughout the district. Cattle remained in good body condition as producers continued to feed hay and other supplements. Hay supplies were good, and calving season was underway.

Southeast

Colder temperatures and freeze events affected many counties, leading to dormant pastures and slow forage growth. Drought conditions and moisture concerns were widespread. Soil moisture levels around the district ranged from short to surplus. Grimes County reported a heavy rain event that provided some relief, but slower, soaking rains were needed to improve long-term moisture. Winter wheat was 100% emerged and in good condition overall. Hay and supplemental feed rations increased as grazing declined. Despite reduced forage availability, livestock generally remained in fair to good condition. Producers continued preparing fields for the upcoming planting season. Pasture and rangeland ratings were fair to good. Livestock conditions ranged from good to excellent.

Southwest

Warmer, dry conditions persisted across the district, with a brief cold period over the weekend that brought nighttime lows into the 30s and daytime highs in the 60s. No precipitation was recorded in several weeks, and the combination of cold temperatures and strong winds further reduced soil moisture. Fire danger was elevated due to conditions. The cooler temperatures reduced evapotranspiration in wheat and oat crops, but rain was still needed. Row crop farmers continued preparing fields for spring planting. Livestock conditions remained good overall. Producers were heavily supplementing livestock and wildlife diets, and animals were seeking available water sources.

Coastal Bend

Dry conditions continued. A hard freeze was reported in DeWitt County, though no killing frost had occurred along the Upper Gulf Coast. Soil moisture remained critically low. Producers were largely finished with fertilizing and tillage but were waiting on rain to plant. Winter pastures were variable, performing well in some areas and poorly in others due to uneven rainfall. Many cool-season forage fields germinated but failed due to a lack of moisture. Range and pastures greened up slightly in areas but remained short on moisture overall. Mealybug damage earlier in the season added to forage stress. Hay feeding and supplementation were in full swing, and some operations were hauling water.  Hay inventories were shrinking. Cattle were generally in fair condition, and calves looked good as high calf and cull cow prices continued to help producer morale.

South

Conditions were unseasonably warm and dry for most of the week, with cool, mild conditions settling in late. A strong cold front developed at the end of the week, but no rain came with it. Parts of the district experienced a hard freeze, with temperatures in the mid- to low-20s. Drought continued to worsen due to lack of moisture and dry northern air. There was no irrigation water in the canals. Soil moisture levels were very short to short across the district. Producers were harvesting leafy greens. Citrus and cool-season vegetable harvests continued under dry conditions, with Cameron County reporting a 30% harvest rate. The onion crop continued to mature, with harvest expected to begin in March. Row crop producers were preparing for spring planting, but reported insufficient moisture for seed germination. Prickly pear was turning yellow, and the brush was showing severe signs of drought stress. Range and pasture conditions were poor to fair, with grass yields very low due to low moisture and cool temperatures. Pastures and range provided little nutritional value. Livestock and wildlife were in good condition, but supplemental feeding was necessary. Cattle marketed locally were notably thinner than those in the fall. Beef cattle prices remained very high. Feed was in great demand and prices were high at local feed stores. Hay prices were still high, and supplies were short in some areas. Landowners reported a good hunting season with an average to excellent quail crop and an average deer crop.