Experts expect shift in chicken prices amid fertility, bird flu concerns

Chicken prices have dipped slightly on the heels of increased broiler production, but Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts expect output to slow and prices to climb.

David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist and professor, Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, said high beef prices and trends for more protein in American diets are helping poultry demand.

U.S. broiler production jumped from 46.5 billion pounds in 2024 to 47.5 billion pounds in 2025 and is projected to reach 47.6 billion pounds this year, as it has already increased 3.5% since Jan. 1. However, prices have been lower overall compared to last year, and Anderson believes that could trigger a slowdown in production.

Competitive prices help chicken demand

Wholesale boneless, skinless chicken breasts spiked near $2.77 per pound in mid-2025 before sliding to $1.16 per pound by year’s end, Anderson said. However, the January Consumer Price Index showed retail chicken breasts were higher – $4.17 per pound compared to $3.97 per pound this time last year. Legs were 5 cents lower per pound – $1.74 compared to $1.79 last year.

“Chicken remains a value relative to beef and continues to experience strong demand on the grocery and restaurant side,” Anderson said. “Chicken continues to benefit from creative products and ideas to expand its market share among proteins.”

But he said potential production disruptions could complicate supply/demand factors even more, and lower supplies could signal higher prices are ahead.

Avian influenza risk weighs on chicken producers

On the production side, lower feed and energy costs and technological efficiencies have helped profitability but growers and the industry remain concerned about highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI, said Greg Archer, Ph.D., associate professor and AgriLife Extension poultry specialist in the Department of Poultry Science.

Farms are placing a high priority on biosecurity but concern about broader potential impacts of HPAI, also known as bird flu, will remain until summer, he said. A single broiler farm in East Texas experienced an outbreak earlier this year.

Archer said the primary concern is not isolated broiler farms, but laying facilities that provide fertilized eggs for broiler hatcheries. Broiler farms can recover relatively quickly, while breeder flocks can take more than a year, and the losses ripple throughout the production chain and to prices at grocery stores.

“The industry is really pushing biosecurity to stay on top of the disease,” he said. “It’s a concern that isn’t going away, so the focus is limiting its impact on production.”

Industry focuses on hatchability and bird health

Bird nutrition and health also continue to be a focus as production moves away from antibiotics, Archer said. Industry has been quick to adopt research related to probiotics and prebiotics in feed and continues to investigate how nutrition can improve flock health.  

Egg fertility in breeder flocks remains a lingering concern for the industry. Fertility rates, or chick hatchability, hover around 75% – nine of every dozen eggs produce viable chicks – but a 2025 Texas A&M AgriLife Research study showed fertility rates could reach 60% by 2050.

The U.S. poultry industry produced more than 9 billion broilers last year, which means 12 billion eggs were needed to meet capacity. It would require 15 billion eggs to hatch 9 billion viable broiler chicks if fertility rates continue to fall.

“Fertility rates have been an issue, and avian influenza outbreaks are a threat that compounds the potential impact in a way that consumers would notice,” Archer said.

Market forces weigh on production, prices

Anderson expects production to slow compared to the first quarter of 2026. Just like higher prices last year led to increased production, lower prices will influence output. Demand will weigh on the various chicken cuts differently.

Anderson said broiler weights have trended higher in recent years to meet the broader demand for white meat that consumers prefer. But a significant amount of broiler chickens is being grown to meet specifications for restaurant chains, especially in recent years, as wings and sandwiches became staples on menus.

Broader consumer demand, including seasonal spikes, continues to influence prices on certain cuts like breasts and wings that are limited by chicken biology, he said.

“I expect to see some contraction, and that typically means prices will go higher,” he said. “It will be interesting to see how beef, pork and other proteins trend as we get closer to grilling season, but it’s safe to say chicken will remain a value option in relation to beef.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Panhandle

The district experienced very dry, much warmer weather. Overall soil moisture reported from very short to short. Producers reported added growth of small grain crops following sunny days and increased temperatures. However, additional rainfall would boost grazing potential. A few growers performed conservation tillage passes across fields to apply nutrient fertilizers as they prepare fields for warm-season crops. Some producers reported mites on wheat. Supplemental livestock feeding continued. Pasture and range conditions were very poor to fair.

South Plains

Winter wheat started taking off after two rainfall events and temperature increases, but the above normal daytime temperatures and wind have dried conditions. Subsoil moisture levels improved some, but the topsoil moisture declined due to high winds. More rainfall was needed. Some wheat crops, dryland and irrigated, were not looking good. Producers were irrigating, plowing and preparing to plant. The recent unseasonably warm temperatures caused weeds to start germinating. Livestock were in good condition on supplemental feed.

Rolling Plains

Producers experienced another warm, windy week with little to no precipitation. Conditions continued to elevate fire danger. Winter wheat showed strong growth and perked up following recent rains, though continued hot, dry and windy weather was beginning to stress fields, and additional moisture was needed. Some oats were planted. Wheat topdressing was underway and fertilizer rigs were moving in anticipation of rain.
Pasture growth remained behind schedule, leaving producers concerned as grazing and hay stockpiles dwindled. Wheat was being heavily utilized for grazing and livestock were performing well with supplemental feed.

North

Temperature highs reached 80 degrees, but most days were in the 70s. Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were short to adequate. Some farmers started planting corn and sorghum much earlier than usual. Winter wheat and oats were in fair to good condition. Moisture and fertilizer helped winter wheat take off, and some fields reached first hollow stem. Later-planted fields struggled some. Cool-season pastures started to take off as well. The pasture and range conditions were rated fair and good. A burn ban was issued in many counties due to increased fire weather danger. Livestock were in fair and good condition, and hay feeding continued. Feral hogs remained active. Noctuid moths were observed during night light surveys. Some small aphid populations were seen in some wheat fields and treated.

East

Drought conditions spread. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short. Most counties were in desperate need of rainfall. Angelina and Polk counties posted burn bans, and Marion County reported a 338-acre fire that took two days to control. Pasture and rangeland conditions were poor to fair. Livestock were in fair to good condition with supplementation taking place. Cattle markets remained strong.

Far West

Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were predominantly very short to short, though a few locations reported adequate moisture. Soil moisture continued to decline in many areas due to above-normal temperatures and wind. Pecan harvest was delayed in several areas due to a lack of hard freezes followed by heavy rainfall, but harvest was wrapping up, and many producers moved into the pruning phase. In some operations, early irrigation began using available effluent or well water. Ground preparation for cotton was well underway, with rows being listed and pre-irrigation expected to begin soon. Established alfalfa stands received irrigation where water was available. Earlier rains provided some green-up. Wheat and oat fields were progressing, with some reaching ankle height. Corn and sorghum planting began or was expected to soon, depending on rainfall. Pasture and range conditions were mostly poor to very poor across the district, with only isolated areas reporting fair to good conditions. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. Livestock were generally in fair to good condition, with lambing and kidding underway. Wildlife activity remained steady, with increased feral hog and predator movement reported in some areas.

West Central

Conditions were dry and windy, and high temperatures reached mostly into the 80s, with a high of 92 degrees reported. Rain was in the forecast. Soil moisture was needed. The most recent rainfall helped wheat perk up. Some producers were plowing and planting corn. Pastures and rangeland improved with recent rains and warmer temperatures. Grazing availability increased, but some stock tanks were getting low. Cool-season forages improved grazing as well. Livestock conditions were improving, and cattle prices remained high with strong demand.

Central

Dry weather continued with above-average temperatures and high winds. Many grass fires were reported. Pastures looked better following the light rainfall a few weeks ago. Soil temperatures already hit 60 degrees. Warm-season pastures needed soil moisture. Producers were seeing an increase of forbs in pastures. Oats and wheat were not recovering well after hard freezes earlier in the month due to lack of moisture. Corn planting was in full swing, and grain sorghum planting should follow. Producers made final fertilizer applications. Early variety fruit trees were blooming, and ornamental trees were beginning to break dormancy. Pest numbers remained light, and minimal disease pressure was observed, predominantly leaf rust with a little stripe rust. Cattle were in decent condition, and prices were strong. Producers continued supplemental feeding of cubes and hay.

Southeast

Drought conditions continued in most areas with very short to short soil moisture levels and a few areas reporting adequate levels. Pasture conditions were mostly fair with poor to good conditions reported in areas. Pond levels were declining and low in some areas. Ryegrass and winter pastures struggled. Oats and winter wheat conditions were fair to excellent with some fields headed out. Livestock continued to receive hay and cubes, although some warm-season forages began to break dormancy and green up. Corn planting started. Irrigation water levels were low in some areas. Fields were being prepared for planting.

Southwest

Dry conditions persisted, causing very poor conditions except for irrigated fields. Row crop planting was in question this year. Initial wildflower bloom was very low due to lack of rain. Corn planting was about to start in irrigated fields. Some farmers were going to plant and bet on future rainfall, while others continued to wait for rain, but corn acreage was way down at this point. Fruit trees were blooming with the warm temperatures. Dry conditions created wildfire danger. Range and pasture conditions greened up some, and livestock conditions remained fair to good. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued with some culling evident. Lambing and kidding continued. Rainfall chances were in the forecast.

Coastal Bend

Soil moisture conditions remained critically dry, with very little topsoil and subsoil moisture in many fields, and no significant rain was received. Corn, sorghum and some cotton planting began where moisture was available. Producers continued to wait for rain, though much of the crop so far was dry planted in the hopes of rain. Range and pasture conditions were very poor to poor and continued to deteriorate. Winter pastures were providing little to no grazing. Hay feeding continued for beef cattle continued, and cow conditions were declining while calves were still holding up. Some cattle were marketed early due to limited resources.

South

Drought conditions significantly impacted agricultural operations. Conditions were hot, dry and humid, with no significant rainfall reported in months. Temperatures reached 100 degrees in some areas. Soil moisture conditions were extremely poor, and wind erosion was notable any time wind exceeded 15 mph. Irrigation of fields continued. Some producers established good stands of corn and grain sorghum but will need irrigation soon to sustain growth. Many farmers were delaying planting until adequate moisture was received. Strawberry growers were having a rough time with deer and dry weather. Cotton producers began planting. Cantaloupe planting was underway. Citrus and cool-season vegetable harvests continued. Other citrus trees will bloom and generate new fruit soon, though irrigation demand remained high. Range grasses, forbs, trees and brush species were not showing a spring green-up due to drought. Range and pasture forages were in poor condition, and where standing forage exists, fire danger was a concern. Water tanks without wells were dry, and some water well volumes decreased. Hay was in demand and has increased in price. Ranchers were supplementing diets, weaning calves early, reducing herd numbers, and in some cases, liquidating herds.