Cotton crop faring better than past two drought years

The Texas cotton crop can only be described as a mixed bag – with harvest wrapping up in the southern parts to bolls just setting in the northernmost parts – and sometimes the mixture depends on the moisture.

Growers around much of the state expect better yields and quality than in the past two years.

Outlooks are a relief for cotton producers in the High Plains who suffered back-to-back seasons of drought in 2022 and 2023. AgriLife Extension agronomists across the state say it is just a waiting game for many to see if timely rains appear to help finish fiber development.

Producers in coastal Texas hope to avoid tropical weather systems as they finish harvesting the 2024 cotton crop.

“I would say after Hurricane Beryl, a lot of eyes are on the tropics and the Gulf of Mexico,” said Ben McKnight, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension statewide cotton specialist and assistant professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Bryan-College Station. “This is always a concern this time of year, especially for growers near the coast.”

Coastal Bend and Rio Grande Valley

Harvest is about wrapped up in the Coastal Bend and Rio Grande Valley, with a few unharvested fields left from Refugio County south, said Josh McGinty, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist and assistant professor, Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Corpus Christi.

The Coastal Bend cotton crop started early, with a large portion planted in late February. While it received good soil moisture at planting, the season turned dry until Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in late June.

“From there through the last week of July, I recorded almost 12 inches of rain,” McGinty said. “Hurricane Beryl missed us, but the week after, we received several days of significant rain, which led to some seed sprouting in the boll and delayed harvest of our early planted crop.”

Those rains were too late to help the early crop much, but later-planted fields benefited, he said. Overall, yields are better than expected with many early planted fields producing 1.5-plus bales per acre and yields of 2 bales per acre reported in some later planted fields.

“As I move up the coast to some of our northern field trials, I expect yields to trend even higher,” McGinty said. “The U.S. Department of Agriculture office in Corpus has classed 175,000 bales as of last Friday. Leaf grades are a bit higher than normal, but that’s understandable, given how difficult it’s been to defoliate this crop with abundant soil moisture. Otherwise, lint quality looks good and there hasn’t been any plastic contamination reported.”

Cotton fields in the Rio Grande Valley were drier than the Coastal Bend. Cotton acreage in the valley was down quite a bit due to an extremely limited supply of irrigation water this year. The dryland fields looked poor in June, and many fields were too far gone to benefit from the rain by July.

Upper Gulf Coast

The Upper Gulf Coast had plenty of rainfall and in some cases, planting was later than usual, or the rain caused a few replants, McKnight said.

Frequent rainfall through midseason benefited the early established dryland crop. Hurricane Beryl caused some damage to cotton in Matagorda, Wharton, Fort Bend and Brazoria counties.

“We should be getting yield reports from the area within the next few weeks, but cotton that wasn’t damaged by the hurricane appears to be in good shape, and I would anticipate average to slightly above average yields in the Upper Gulf Coast,” McKnight said.

East Texas and Blacklands

Early season hail events left some early cotton in the Blacklands with minimal to extremely severe damage, McKnight said. Abundant rainfall there and in East Texas also led to conditions so wet some producers couldn’t get into fields by the planting deadline, thus reducing cotton acres.

Overall, though, rainfall was good through midseason, benefiting the dryland crop, and early plantings appear to be producing average to above average yields in the Blacklands, he said. While it is still a little early, the anticipated irrigated cotton yields in East Texas appear to be average.

“Growers who haven’t already begun defoliating and harvesting are firming up their plans for harvest-aid applications in the coming weeks,” McKnight said.

Central Texas

Reagan Noland, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist and associate professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, San Angelo, said cotton acres are down slightly in Central Texas, after a few years of failed cotton being replanted in wheat.

“This year, some cotton in Tom Green County was hailed out or is in bad shape due to marginal moisture throughout the growing season,” Noland said. “But when you get into Runnels County and north of San Angelo, we had good rain for cotton planting. The Rolling Plains north of the Concho Valley look good as well, but it all needs rain.”

He estimated the dryland crop is about average, and how it finishes will be determined in the next few weeks and whether it gets much-needed rain to survive. The irrigated crop is not much better off after fall rains failed to recharge groundwater.

“Our area ran out of water in July, so it might not do much better than the dryland,” he said. “We do have some that will make, and it is in better shape than the past two years. But we’re still marginal in terms of yield potential. It’s really on the fence right now.”

Noland said the region plants dryland cotton late, in mid-June, hoping to hold on until the late August and September rains come.

South Plains

After tough 2022 and 2023 seasons resulted in high abandonment and prevented plantings, the South Plains rebounded with more cotton acreage this year, said Ken Lege, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension cotton agronomist and assistant professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Lubbock.

Lege said abandonment due to drought is expected in some areas, but that percentage is back to a normal level, and South Plains producers anticipate harvesting around 3 million acres.

Timely rains during planting and stand development, along with mild temperatures, helped, he said. Although some triple-digit high temperatures were scattered throughout June and July, several cool fronts returned temperatures to nearly average. 

Dryland acres, which comprise around 80% of the South Plains cotton, were in good condition until the end of July. However, very hot and dry conditions have persisted, and dryland and irrigated acreage have declined somewhat, Lege said.

He rated the dryland cotton about 5% very good and 30% poor, with the rest somewhere between. Irrigated fields in the region are 5% excellent, 20% very good, 30% good, 25% fair and 20% poor.

“Again, continued heat and drought will push a higher percentage into the ‘poor’ category with each week,” he said. “Our biggest concern is the continued heat and drought. The two-week forecast shows even more heat and very few rain chances.”

Much of the dryland and light irrigated acres just started flowering, setting early bolls or approaching cutout, the last bloom to develop into a harvestable boll. Without some rain, many of those bolls may shed or may not develop as much lint as hoped, Lege said. 

While it is too early for yield projections, Lege said the forecast suggests lower-than-expected yields with shorter fiber length. 

“However, if rainfall returns and the heat is not as high as forecast, cotton can rebound and compensate very quickly,” he said. “But that relief needs to arrive sooner rather than later.”

Panhandle

Cotton is blooming in the Panhandle, and hot, dry conditions have driven many fields past cutout, said Jourdan Bell, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension cotton agronomist and associate professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Amarillo.

“We are seeing blooms and early bolls drop in water-limited fields,” Bell said. “Once we reach cut out, we do not recommend producers continue irrigating, but because of limited soil moisture, we also do not want to continue dropping bolls and lose our yield potential.”

The extended forecast is 100-plus degrees all week, she said, so producers need to closely watch irrigated fields and possibly continue irrigation if soil moisture is limited.

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Central

Lack of water caused topsoil dryness as temperatures reached 100 degrees. Forage grasses were baled three times, a notable improvement from the previous year’s single cut. Stock tanks dropped slightly but remained above critical levels. Corn harvesting was rapid, with yields exceeding 200 bushels per acre, though some hybrids didn’t perform as well. Grasshoppers, Bermuda stem maggots and cutworms were reported in forages, and fall armyworms were a concern where fields received rain, prompting spraying. Cotton bolls opened in one-third of the fields, with the heat expected to mature the rest soon. Early planted cotton yields were average or better. Grain sorghum harvest continued as fields dried. Livestock were seeking shade during the day. Horn fly numbers were increasing.

Rolling Plains

Extremely unfavorable conditions persisted due to the heat and lack of rain. Cultivated crops were showing signs of stress or nearing failure. Grasses in pastures and roadsides were dry, and the risk of wildfires was high. Some producers opted to ship or sell cattle due to diminishing pasture grazing. Grasshoppers remained across the area.

Coastal Bend

Hot and dry weather was beginning to impact soil moisture and pasture conditions. Hay was being baled on a large scale, but the quality may be down due to delays from wet conditions. Hay fields were being cut and baled, producing high-quality and abundant yields. The grain sorghum harvest was complete, the corn harvest was wrapping up, and the rice harvest was over 50% complete. Cotton harvest was starting, with fields being defoliated and some already baled. Gin yards were busy in some areas. Livestock were doing well, and range and pasture grasses were growing fast.

East

Recent high temperatures, paired with a lack of rain, produced dry conditions. Several areas were in critical need of rain. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Subsoil conditions were adequate while topsoil conditions were short to adequate. Hay production continued. Bermuda stem maggots and armyworm infestations continued to spread and worsen. Livestock conditions were fair to good.

Southeast

Little to no rain was reported in most areas and wet conditions earlier have given way to a drier pattern and extreme heat. Soil-moisture levels throughout the district ranged from adequate to surplus. Rangeland and pasture ratings varied from excellent to very poor. Rice was being harvested. Hay was being cut, but forage production was slowing. Cotton harvest will begin soon. Calf prices rebounded after a slight dip last week.

South Plains

Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels declined due to the extreme heat and lack of rain. Crops without irrigation were struggling and needed moisture. Cotton irrigation applications were critical as plants neared peak water demand. Peanuts were making progress but needed a break from the heat and lack of moisture. Triple-digit heat continued to affect grass conditions. Cattle were in good condition.

Panhandle

Scattered showers were reported across the district, with some areas receiving up to 2 inches of rain, while most of the region was extremely dry, with temperatures consistently above 100 degrees. Soil moisture varied from very short to adequate, and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair. Summer crops and rangeland are suffering from a lack of moisture. Dryland sorghum was being downgraded while all other crops were holding steady. Irrigated corn producers were watering. Fields of Sudan grass, forage sorghum and grain sorghum were harvested and packed for silage. Both dryland and irrigated cotton were shedding bolls due to heat and drought stress.

North

The district experienced triple-digit temperatures, and soil moisture continued to decline in some parts of the region. Topsoil and subsoil were short to adequate, while pasture and range conditions were fair to good for most counties, with a few reporting poor and excellent conditions. Rain was needed to improve forage quality and growth. Corn harvest was in full effect but yields and quality looked poor. Grain sorghum harvest should start soon for some counties, and sorghum aphids were thick in some areas. High temperatures were affecting the quality of forage. Fig and okra harvests were doing well. Fall armyworm numbers were on the rise. Livestock conditions were good.

Far West

Conditions in the district were hot and dry, with an average high temperature of 100 degrees. Rain was needed to improve rangeland, soil moisture and growing conditions. Cotton endured a second week of extreme heat stress, with no opportunity to recover at night. Small boll squares were shedding. Corn harvest was near completion. Sorghum was fair but dry conditions have slowed plants. Melon harvest was nearing the end, with this season’s crop lasting longer than usual. Pastures were bare, with very few livestock remaining. Livestock conditions ranged from fair to poor. Producers worried about the future of managing livestock due to heat and lack of rain. Shipping of goats and nannies finished.

West Central

Hot and dry conditions continued across the district, further dropping tank and lake water levels. Soil moisture was decreasing. Some farmers were plowing fields for wheat planting. Cotton was maturing quickly, and plants shedding bolls were a concern with the heat and dry conditions. Sorghum harvest was complete with very low yields, and some fields went unharvested due to drought stress and no grain. Corn harvest finished. Grasses turned brown and were very dry, and hay was being fed to livestock. Cattle were being culled due to drought. Insect problems continued with grasshoppers plaguing the area.

Southwest

Moisture conditions declined due to hot, humid, dry and very windy weather. Corn and sorghum harvests continued, with most areas reporting average to good yields. Hay pastures were being baled. Some stunting was noticeable in cotton, particularly in dryland fields. Pasture and range conditions continued to decline, and more weeds were emerging. Pastures showed signs of drought stress, and livestock grazed with minimal dietary supplements. High temperatures were stressing livestock.

South

Hot and dry conditions continued across the district with most areas averaging in the low 100s. Soil moisture conditions continued to decrease and stock tanks were slowly drying up. Cotton harvest was nearing completion as the warmer weather rapidly increased maturity in some areas. Citrus crops were irrigated, and cool-season vegetables were planted in some areas. The peanut crop continued to progress and peg under irrigation. Pastures showed signs of stress, and range and pasture conditions declined due to hot, dry conditions. Supplemental feeding was needed for livestock due to the lack of forage. Cattle prices were strong in most areas.