Turkey prices low ahead of Thanksgiving holiday

Consumers should find good whole turkey prices, but that could change as the holiday season progresses due to lower production and supplies than last year, said Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.

David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station, said prices on whole birds typical for table centerpieces during the holidays have been below the five-year average. The wholesale price for 8-16-pound hens was 99 cents per pound the week of Oct. 19 compared to $1.12 per pound last year and the five-year average of $1.22 per pound.

“Prices are good for consumers, but they’re bad for producers,” he said. “Last year started off strong for producers, but prices bottomed out after Thanksgiving and they haven’t recovered.”

Production’s impact on turkey prices

Anderson said dismal prices for producers who continue to deal with higher input and labor costs contributed to a drop in production. A U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed turkey production dipped more than 6% compared to this time last year.

Beyond the price-related production declines, Greg Archer, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension poultry specialist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Poultry Science, Bryan-College Station, said avian influenza and an emerging issue with avian metapneumovirus continues to impact turkey and other poultry.

“We’re down in the total number of birds and hatchlings, so that will impact the supply side,” he said. “Producers have been dealing with avian influenza for three-plus years and now this metapneumonia is becoming an issue. They’re losing fewer birds from these diseases, but losses are still impacting production.”

As of August, avian influenza outbreaks have resulted in the loss of almost 15 million turkeys in the U.S., according to USDA-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, APHIS. Most of those turkeys were lost in 2022. Avian influenza hits turkey production especially hard because flocks have more potential to be exposed to the pathogens that are carried by wild birds like migratory ducks.

The time it takes to grow a turkey – smaller birds take 15-18 weeks from hatching to harvest, whereas bigger birds can take 20-plus weeks to reach maturity – and the more open-style housing facilities contribute to their risk of exposure, Archer said. Commercial broiler chickens on the other hand are raised in up to six weeks and in houses that are easier to apply biosecurity regimens to prevent pathogen exposure. 

Another factor for turkeys is that many commercial producers are in areas like Minnesota with higher migratory duck populations.

“The disease is more prevalent, and it just creates these potential hotspots for outbreaks,” Archer said. “Incidents are low, and the hope is that it doesn’t become a broader issue like it was a couple years ago.”

Consumer demand trends impact on prices

Along with reduced production, the number of whole turkeys in cold storage is 1.6% lower than last year, which ties into the trend of fewer birds available this holiday season, Anderson said.

Anderson said he doesn’t see any trends suggesting the lower supplies or the threat of disease outbreaks will spur prices upward dramatically. But he said consumers could see slightly higher prices in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. 

There’s also a chance consumers could see discounts and specials on whole birds as grocers try to draw customers who are likely to buy more items associated with holiday cooking, he said.

One trend Anderson has seen emerge on the demand side over recent holiday seasons that could influence overall turkey prices is the move toward non-traditional meats for holiday meals after Thanksgiving.

“Consumers want that traditional centerpiece turkey for Thanksgiving, but they’re also going with other meats like hams and briskets or prime rib for Christmas,” he said. “People are forgoing that second turkey for their holiday get-togethers, and that is impacting the overall historical demand.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Central

Conditions were very hot and very dry. Scant rainfall has been received since the beginning of September. Crops and pastures suffered, and pasture forage decreased due to the shorter days, cooler nights and lack of moisture. The pecan harvest continued. Hay was harvested over recent weeks. The second crop corn silage and cotton harvests were nearly complete. Oats and wheat were in desperate need of moisture, and many producers had to replant oats. The cattle market fell slightly, and livestock remained in good condition.

Rolling Plains

The warm and dry conditions gave way to cooler temperatures and some much-needed rainfall over the weekend. Farmers reported rainfall amounts between 2.5-3 inches. Once fields dried out, farmers were finishing up planting wheat and spot-planting any areas where heavy rains may have washed out seed. Cattle received a boost from winter grasses that improved with the moisture, saving producers from having to start feeding hay and supplements for a little while. Rancher optimism around grazing improved with the outlook for winter wheat following the rain.

Coastal Bend

Scattered showers brought about 1 inch of rain to some areas, but field conditions remained very dry. Pastures continued to deteriorate rapidly, with many ranchers already feeding hay and protein due to poor nutritional forage quality. Fall fieldwork, including stalk destruction and row preparation, continued at a slow pace, especially on heavy clay soils. Hay fields were not growing due to the lack of moisture, and ryegrass and winter pasture planting were delayed until more moisture arrives. Cattle were in good condition and prices remained high, but hay feeding was necessary.

East

Some counties received enough rainfall to lift burn bans, while others remained in desperate need of moisture. More rainfall was forecasted. Cherokee and Houston counties reported several fires that resulted in agricultural losses. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair. Subsoil conditions were very short to short while topsoil conditions were adequate. Producers in areas with recent rainfall began preparing for winter pasture planting. Livestock were in fair to good condition with supplemental feeding taking place. Wild pig control measures continued.

South Plains

Significant rains were received over the weekend throughout most of the area, ranging from half an inch to 4 inches. The moisture should benefit wheat fields and pastures. Farmers were busy stripping cotton and cutting hay to bale before rains slowed fieldwork. Irrigated cotton yields were down approximately 20-40% compared to the previous year, and only a small percentage of dryland cotton was harvestable. Farmers were busy planting winter wheat, but very little planted wheat had emerged. Producers planned to start feeding hay until wheat is ready to graze. Cattle were in good condition.

Panhandle

A cold front delivered cooler nighttime temperatures. Conditions were favorable for drying grain in later-planted corn. Occasional rain showers added topsoil moisture that was greatly needed for small grain crops in early growth stages. Cover crops emerged on many harvested fields. Cotton was being harvested. Widespread rain and a possible freeze were forecasted for the weekend. Overall soil moisture was very short to adequate. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair. Overall crop conditions were poor to good.

North

Pasture and rangeland conditions were mainly poor to fair, while subsoil and topsoil conditions were primarily short to adequate. Days were warm and dry, though rain was received. Rainfall totals ranged from about three-quarters of an inch to 1.5 inches in some areas. Pastures were dormant, and the low quality and quantity forage forced many producers to supplement livestock diets with hay. Livestock continued to perform well under the conditions. Wheat, cool-season crops and forages were planted. Feral hogs remained an issue.

Far West

Dry, cool, windy conditions were prevalent across the district. The lack of rainfall and strong winds created dangerous conditions for wildfires. Temperatures were forecasted to dip close to the freezing mark in higher elevations. In the lower elevations, highs remained in the upper 80s, with overnight lows in the mid-50s. Very spotty showers moved through the district over the weekend with most of the rainfall in the far eastern portion. Totals ranged from zero to 0.6 inch over the three days. The extremely dry topsoil made it difficult for moisture to penetrate the topsoil. Much more rain would be needed to improve soil moisture, rangeland and growing conditions. The cotton harvest moved quickly, and many producers were wrapping up. Some cotton fields were shredded and plowed under due to a failed crop. Very little cotton was expected for gins again this season, possibly the lowest yields in the past three years. Wheat struggled, with most of the acres yet to emerge, and the small amount that had emerged was dying due to drought. This season was shaping up to look like the past three years. Rangeland and pastures remained very dry, with little growth over the past few months. Producers continued supplemental feeding programs and made drastic reductions in cattle herds. In the Rio Grande Valley, Pima cotton was being harvested, with upland cotton likely to follow. The Valley’s cotton gin was set to start ginning soon. Pecans were watered for the final time this season. Alfalfa growers made a final cut.

West Central

Warmer-than-normal temperatures prevailed, with most areas remaining dry. A few areas received trace amounts of rainfall up to 4 inches for the week, but some areas received no rain. The forecast for the next week showed some chances of rain and slightly lower temperatures. Soil conditions were concerning for planted small grains, and fields that had emerged were in danger of dying due to lack of moisture. Wheat planting continued, and most irrigated winter wheat had emerged. Native pasture conditions were bleak going into winter. Many producers finished cutting hay, with some completing a second round of Sudan hay. Very few dryland cotton fields were being harvested, and most were being shredded due to low quality and lost bolls. Irrigated cotton was being harvested, and producers were planting winter wheat. Reports on pecans indicated an average crop with prices similar to the previous year.

Southwest

Hot, dry conditions continued to degrade rangeland and pastures, preventing the emergence of cool-season grasses. A good rain moved through and delivered 0.5-3.5 inches. However, much more rain was needed to improve rangeland and soil moisture conditions. Most grass was already dormant, and the area was experiencing extreme fire danger. Bastrop County reported a wildfire outbreak that prompted evacuations. The cotton harvest was complete. Wheat and oats planted for cool-season grazing were in desperate need of moisture. Livestock markets were slightly down from previous weeks. Super dry conditions caused producers to heavily supplement feed, especially for fall-calving cows. Rivers flowed slowly, and ponds and stock tanks were nearly dry. Livestock continued to graze on rangelands, with some small, overgrazed pastures requiring supplemental forage and feed.

South

Conditions were very dry. Spotty showers occurred with no measurable amount of rain in some areas. Soil moisture levels were very short to short. Ranchers continued to manage water resources carefully to support livestock and vegetation recovery. Peanuts and sesame were being harvested. Strawberry planting was winding down, and it looked like about 20% of the crop would need to be replanted. Some row crop producers began preparation for the upcoming growing season. Cool-season vegetables progressed well and benefited from the recent rains. Producers planted leafy greens, cabbage and onions. Citrus harvest began for certain varieties, and others will follow in the next few months. Forages continued to decline in quality. A few irrigated hay fields were producing bales. Pecan yields were low due to the lack of water. Plenty of low-cost hay was available across the county. The recent rainfall helped heat-stressed corn. Rangeland conditions were declining, and some brush species were dropping leaves. Supplemental feeding for livestock continued. Local markets continued to report average volumes and steady prices for all classes of beef cattle. Beef cattle were still in good condition, and producers supplemented with protein to offset the decline in forage quality. Stock tank levels remained a concern to producers across the county, with a slight increase in herd reduction.