Chicken meat prices hold steady despite rising egg costs

Consumers may have noticed the cost of chicken meat has not climbed in relation to soaring egg prices amid production losses due to highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI.

Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts say several factors make meat production broiler farms more resilient to outbreaks, keeping prices relatively stable.

Chicken meat prices vs. eggs

Greg Archer, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension poultry specialist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Poultry Science, Bryan-College Station, said HPAI outbreaks in broiler houses have not impacted meat prices for a few reasons.

Broiler chickens that end up in grocery stores and on restaurant menus are produced in five-to-seven-week cycles. Compared to egg-laying hens, which can be in production for years, broiler chickens have a much shorter window of time to potentially be exposed to the pathogen that causes avian influenza.  

Broiler farms also hold fewer birds, he said. Farms typically consist of four to six production houses that may hold 40,000 birds. That means any outbreak could impact 160,000-240,000 birds whereas a commercial egg production farm might house over 1 million birds.

It also takes broiler farms much less time to resume production after an outbreak, Archer said. Following an outbreak, the production houses are cleaned, sanitized and monitored to ensure the pathogen is not present on the farm. This process could take a few months, and the farm could then begin the production cycle.

It could take six months for a commercial egg farm to resume production and even longer to reach full capacity, he said.

“The impact on chicken meat just hasn’t showed up in the grocery store and people’s pocketbooks so far because of the nature of the poultry industry,” he said. “Avian flu is impacting farms and farmers, but it would take widespread outbreaks to impact production and supplies.”

Chicken production keeps prices stable

David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station, said chicken prices have gone up year-over-year, but production has not been the reason.

“It comes down to the scale of the losses within the context of production,” he said. “We’ve had outbreaks at broiler farms, but it’s relatively small compared to the number of chickens in production.”

For perspective, U.S. broiler farms produced 796 million chickens in January. The U.S. Department of Agriculture January livestock report showed around 2.2 million broilers were lost to HPAI in December.

Wholesale boneless, skinless chicken breasts are higher, $1.75 per pound, compared to $1.26 per pound this time last year, Anderson said.

Another factor that weighs on chicken prices is the demand for different production weights for grocer and restaurant markets, Anderson said. Restaurants serving chicken sandwiches want breast cuts that are specific to the product they serve, and regional farms may be contracted to meet that demand.

Anderson believes the slight increase is related to a combination of demand dynamics and chicken’s competitive price in relation to beef alongside a historical upward seasonal price trend in the spring and summer.

“It’s interesting what chicken offerings from chain restaurants have done to the poultry market over the past 10 years,” he said. “If they roll out something new or special, it can be a market-moving event because there is so much volume.”

Uncertainty still ahead

Anderson and Archer said the U.S. poultry industry may still face significant challenges before warmer temperatures end the avian flu season. HPAI strains continue to be found in migratory birds and other species, including dairy cattle.

Egg production flocks dropped to 291.5 million birds as of Feb.1 compared to 304.1 million on Jan. 1, Anderson said. He expects to see similar losses in the March 1 report.

“Everyone is waiting to get past flu season and get a little bit of respite from summer,” he said. “If there is one positive, it is that broiler production has gone relatively unscathed so far.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Central

Temperatures warmed, and winds dried out already-dormant vegetation. Rain was needed heading into spring. Weed control was in progress. Previous low temperatures and wind chills caused the loss of many small grain acres. Wheat sustained some leaf tip burn. Corn planting began and was expected to increase across the district as soil temperatures surpassed 55 degrees. The remaining wheat grazing was very short. The cattle, sheep and goat markets remained steady. Supplemental feeding continued, and livestock were in fair to good condition.

Rolling Plains

Ongoing dry conditions and above-average temperatures stressed the wheat crop across the district. Farmers reported widespread reduced soil moisture levels, raising concerns about potential yield impacts. With little rain in the forecast for the upcoming week, wildfire threats increased.

Coastal Bend

February ended as a very dry month, with rainfall totals ranging from 0.30 to 0.80 inches. Warm-season perennial grasses began breaking dormancy, and winter pastures performed well, reducing hay supplementation for beef cattle. However, rainfall remained insufficient across many areas, limiting new pasture growth. Corn and grain sorghum planting continued, though some producers tilled soil to reach moisture. In drier areas, planting slowed or stopped. Corn, sorghum and rice planting began, but rain was needed for upcoming cotton planting. Livestock conditions declined, and supplementation continued as hay supplies dwindled.

East

Warmer weather dried out saturated areas, allowing producers to move equipment in and out of pastures and fields. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were adequate. The cattle market remained strong despite the weather. Livestock were in fair to good condition and receiving supplemental feed. Wild pig damage persisted.

Southeast

Producers in some counties struggled with wet fields and awaited drier weather to begin planting rice, while others had already planted corn and planned for cotton and rangeland fertilization. Warmer, drier conditions improved grazing, and pasture growth showed signs of green-up in several areas. Livestock diets were still supplemented with hay and cubes where natural forage remained insufficient. Producers in many counties prepared pastures for spring. Pasture and rangeland ratings ranged from poor to excellent. Soil moisture levels varied from short to surplus. Wheat and oat conditions ranged from poor to good.

South Plains

Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were short, with no measurable rainfall for several weeks. Windy conditions were expected to worsen the situation. Much of the leftover forage from last summer was depleted due to poor winter wheat grazing. Cattle remained on supplemental feed and were in good condition, but rangeland growth struggled with extreme dryness.

Panhandle

Conditions improved for small grains and other cool-season crops, with daytime temperatures reaching the mid-60s to mid-70s and overnight lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. Topsoil moisture reserves gradually declined in dryland production areas. Field preparation for warm-season crops increased. Irrigation began on wheat and summer cropland. Overall, soil moisture ranged from short to adequate. Pasture and rangeland conditions ranged from very poor to fair.

North

Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were adequate across the district. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Temperatures fluctuated throughout the week, and no significant rainfall was reported. Winter wheat was in fair to good condition, with growth expected to increase soon. Winter crops were recovering from the cold snap. Rain and warmer temperatures were forecast in the coming weeks. Livestock were doing well. Warmer temperatures helped hay consumption and improved spring calving conditions. Warm-season grasses were breaking dormancy. Spring vegetable planting began.

Far West

Temperatures warmed slightly, with highs in the mid-80s and nighttime lows below 40 degrees. No rain fell and winds exceeded 50 mph over the weekend, blowing topsoil and drying soil moisture. All remaining wheat was irrigated but struggled as irrigation could not keep up with demand. Wheat was set to enter the jointing stage over the next couple of weeks, increasing water needs. Fieldwork slowed as topsoil turned to powder. Minimal fieldwork focused on preparing for limited corn planting. Irrigation began on a few fields in preparation for summer cotton. Pastures remained short on weeds, with no green grass despite warming temperatures. Pecan trees had not yet leafed out. Livestock were in poor to fair condition. Cow-calf producers continued supplemental feeding as pasture conditions deteriorated. Lambing and kidding were in full swing. Land preparation continued in the Rio Grande Valley, with some farms listing rows and preparing for preirrigation. A small number of alfalfa acres were being prepared for planting. The water situation remained poor, forcing many farmers to rely on preventive plant insurance. Minimal cotton acreage was expected to be planted this year, as most available water was allocated to pecan orchards and established alfalfa.

West Central

Weather conditions were near normal, with temperatures climbing and a slight chance of rain in the forecast for the following week. The area remained dry and warm throughout the week, with cooler temperatures arriving at the end. Drought conditions worsened, and soil moisture levels remained very low. There was zero moisture, and temperatures rose into the 70s after being in the teens the previous week. Supplemental feeding continued due to very dry conditions. Some areas saw daytime temperatures close to 90 degrees, while nighttime temperatures stayed in the 40s. Topsoil moisture continued to decline, and subsoil moisture ranged from decent to dry. Forage growth for cool-season crops slowed drastically due to dry weather, and field preparation for spring forage planting occurred. The last cold snap severely impacted small grain crops, with oats turning completely brown. Some producers pulled cattle off wheat due to a lack of grazing. Rain was needed before sorghum and cotton planting. Pastures had little to no grazing, and livestock diets were supplemented. Stock tank water levels were dropping. Sale volumes at local sale barns were lower, and prices were steady to higher. Some ranchers culled older cattle and held onto heifers.

Southwest

Rain was needed. Warmer temperatures and mostly sunny conditions encouraged spring greening, but dry conditions persisted, with soil cracking in some areas. More corn farmers than usual preirrigated their fields. Corn planting began in some parts of the district. Signs of drought stress were evident in grasses on yards, rangeland and pastures. Wildfire danger increased due to high winds and low humidity. Landowners prepared for warm-season forage growth with fertilizer applications. Pecan trees showed early bud development. Irrigated crops remained in good condition, while dryland crops suffered. The previous extreme cold slowed Bermuda grass green-up, leaving pastures in poor condition. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued, and body condition scores held up well. Producers continued selling livestock to manage feed costs. Spring lambing, kidding and calving were ongoing.

South

Conditions warmed up compared to last week. Soil moisture conditions varied, with some areas retaining topsoil moisture while others remained dry. Strawberries flowered and grew fruit, and growers using row covers started harvesting. Bermuda grass was sprigged. Farmers were slow to plant due to cold and dry conditions. Local irrigation water canals remained closed for agricultural irrigation, with no production crops to report. Leafy greens were still being harvested. Row crop farmers resumed planting after the last freeze threat passed. Sorghum and corn stands looked good but needed additional moisture soon. Citrus and vegetable harvests continued. Cotton producers hoped for improved soil moisture to begin planting. Livestock and wildlife remained in good condition, but some producers provided water to ponds for them. As temperatures rose, rangeland areas greened due to blooming trees and shrubs, while grass and forb species remained unchanged. Ranchers continued to provide hay and supplemental feed. Some ranchers reduced herd sizes due to drought. Local markets reported average volumes this week, with stronger prices for all classes of beef cattle.