Wheat production and prices are down, but options are available

Wheat producers are in a tough position due to drought right now, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service specialist. However, there are options available that could improve their bottom line.

Last year, coming into March and early April, the drought index was improving, but this year, conditions are worsening as the wheat crop is breaking dormancy and starting reproductive growth, said Mark Welch, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist-grain marketing in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics.

Drought conditions took a critical turn this past week after extreme and relentless wind conditions from Nebraska down to the Rio Grande combined with the lack of rain, leaving wheat producers worried about future production.

“Producers have some real concerns about production potential and are having to ask themselves: ‘Do I spend any more money on it, give it that shot of fertilizer, from a management and marketing standpoint?’” Welch said. “It’s difficult to know which way to jump under these harsh conditions.”

Decisions needed in the coming weeks

Producers will need to decide whether to abandon the idea of going to grain and leave cattle to graze wheat or manage it as wheatlage, which is growing in popularity where water is available. Others will likely abandon the acreage and move on to the next crop if losses are extreme.

“We are getting beyond the graze or grain decision point, but whatever producers do, they need to certainly bring their crop insurance agent into the conversation,” Welch said. “Know where you stand on your policy and its benefits and deadlines.”

Another factor at play this year is enrollment in the farm program. The enrollment deadline to select Agriculture Risk Coverage, ARC, or Price Loss Coverage, PLC, has been extended to April 15. Also, the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program is providing up to $10 billion in direct payments to eligible agricultural producers, including $30.69 per acre to those growing wheat, to help mitigate the impacts of increased input costs and falling commodity prices.

“That’s a significant number,” Welch said. “So, farmers certainly need to take advantage of that. And then I think enrollment in the PLC or ARC program is a very important decision this year.”

He explained the season-average farm price for 2025 is expected to be below the reference price — $5.50 per bushel is the expected season-average farm price, and the reference price is $5.56 per bushel, which would generate a very small PLC payment at those levels.

“We’ve not collected a PLC payment in some time, but if things continue as they are, we could this year,” Welch said. “It might only be 6 cents per bushel if things stay the way they are, but producers need to understand those payments might come into play this year.”

Market prices are down

The cash price was $5 per bushel a year ago, compared to $4.85 per bushel this past week. However, the basis could improve moving into the spring if there is a short crop in other regions — Oklahoma or Kansas — and internationally.

Russia is currently concerned about drought, and it is the world’s No. 1 exporter, so that might create more opportunities for the U.S., Welch said.

Currently, the early projections for U.S. crops show very little change from 2024 to 2025 — harvested acres and yields are about the same, so supply will also change very little. With little domestic-use change expected, the export space is important to increase wheat futures prices.

Wheat conditions are struggling

AgriLife Extension agronomists in the Texas A&M Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, who service different regions of the state, are starting to see varying signs of drought stress on the wheat crop.

Brandon Gerrish, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension statewide small grains specialist, Bryan-College Station, said most of the wheat in south Texas and southern Blackland region looked very good up until recently, but drought stress has become apparent over the past couple of weeks. Spring wheat along the Gulf Coast and into the Winter Garden area southwest of San Antonio is either heading now or already headed.

Dry fall conditions in some areas after planting, along with some very cold periods in January and February, resulted in delayed crop development compared to last year, Gerrish said. Late wheat does not bode well as temperatures rapidly increase with little rain chances in the forecast.

“Also, even though we had some very cold temperatures in January and February, we are still far behind on season-long vernalization hours compared to the five-year average,” he said. “I suspect vernalization issues are probable if producers did not select a low vernalizing cultivar.”

Still potential if rain arrives soon

On a brighter note, Gerrish said the stripe rust has not been as bad as last year. And with the temperatures heating up, he said it is unlikely to see much moving forward. Leaf rust is developing rapidly in some areas, with moderate levels in the lower canopy at College Station and Castroville and trace levels in Uvalde and McGregor. 

Reagan Noland, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist, San Angelo, said the wheat crop varies tremendously across West Central Texas. Wheat was established well and in decent shape from San Angelo to Abilene and north, but all fields desperately needed rain as they entered the reproductive stage, the greatest water requirement period.

However, moving east into Concho County and particularly in McCulloch County, a considerable amount of wheat acreage will fail this year. Most of that area was too dry through the winter, and much did not germinate until January, Noland said. Since then, conditions have been too dry and windy to maintain any production potential.

“There are areas scattered throughout that were established early enough and still have potential, but are showing symptoms of drought stress too,” Noland said. “The forecast does not look good. We really need rain now to make it work.”

Calvin Trostle, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist, Lubbock, said near-record and record November rainfall in the South Plains gave wheat an exceptional start. But dryland wheat has had less than a half inch of rain since then. It has hung on, but its margin for performing well as temperatures warm is gone.

Another concern is freeze damage, Trostle said. While none has been noted to date, the most sensitive stages are approaching where flowering wheat is highly vulnerable to 32 degrees if it lasts two hours or more. 

Jourdan Bell, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist, Amarillo, agreed the fall rainfall significantly benefited all locations, and there has been no winterkill or significant freeze injury at any location.

However, Bell said, while wheat conditions are improved over previous years, fluctuating temperatures, recent windstorms and expanding drought conditions will reduce projected yield potentials if timely spring rainfall is not received.    

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Rolling Plains

Extreme dry conditions and persistent strong winds impacted the district, heightening fire danger and placing significant strain on local agriculture. With little rainfall in recent weeks, vegetation remained extremely dry, increasing the risk of fast-moving wildfires. Farmers and ranchers felt the effects of the drought as wheat crops struggled. Yields were expected to be below average. Ranchers also faced challenges as pastures dried up, leaving cattle with inadequate grazing. Producers turned to supplemental hay and feed to maintain livestock health.

Coastal Bend

Dry, windy weather continued to deplete topsoil moisture levels, putting winter pastures on the verge of graze-out. Rain was needed to sustain forage and emerging crops. All planting halted due to drought conditions. Corn and grain sorghum were mainly planted, with early planted fields looking good while later plantings struggled. Some producers considered replanting poor corn stands with cotton if expected rainfall occurred. Rice planting was about halfway complete, and cotton planting was delayed due to insufficient moisture. Pasture conditions remained poor, offering little quality forage for livestock. Supplemental feeding continued, with hay supplies dwindling and shipments arriving from northern areas. Cattle conditions declined, though calves remained in fair shape. Some areas received light rain, but soil moisture remained critically low. Widespread rainfall was needed to prevent further livestock sell-offs and planting delays.

East

Strong winds remained a problem in the district, causing some producers to lose trees and sustain structural damage. Soil moisture continued to dry up. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good, while subsoil and topsoil moisture conditions remained adequate. Rainfall was needed to encourage growth and green-up. Marion County reported a 500-acre fire. No livestock or homes were lost, and a burn ban was implemented. Other counties also discouraged burning. In Marion County, a producer reportedly lost a bull to black flies. Livestock were in fair to good condition, with supplementation continuing. Wild pig damage persisted.

Southeast

Dry conditions affected soil moisture, with some areas, such as Brazos and Waller counties, reporting drier-than-usual conditions and limited rainfall. There were concerns about drought and slow pasture recovery. Rice planting progressed, and rainfall helped pastures regain moisture. Despite the dry conditions, forages held up well in some areas. High winds affected several counties and raised concerns about fire risks. A large wildfire burned east of Hardin County. Pasture and rangeland ratings were very poor to excellent. Soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Livestock conditions were poor to excellent. Oats looked good to excellent and was 100% headed. Corn planting was past the midway point and continued with some fields emerging. Sorghum planting also continued with a few fields emerged.

South Plains

Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels suffered due to drought. Winter wheat struggled due to the lack of rain and strong winds. Producers did their best to hold down their crops. Cattle were in good condition but could benefit from rain to support grass growth.

Panhandle

The district experienced another week of wind with gusts approaching 80 miles per hour. Overall, soil moisture was very short to adequate. Conditions pulled additional moisture from the soil profile and led to greater wind erosion, even movement of loose residue covering the soil surface. With extreme winds and very low humidity, the area experienced several wildfires. Temperatures were favorable for the steady growth of small grain and other cool-season crops. Wheat conditions were downgraded due to continued dry conditions. Stored subsoil moisture was depleted. There was an increase in field preparation for planting warm-season crops and preplant application of fertilizers. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair. Overall, crops were reported as poor to fair.

Far West

The district needed rain to improve soil moisture and rangeland conditions. Cool mornings were reported, with lows in the 40s and highs reaching the upper 80s. Extraordinarily high winds limited fieldwork, with two days of low visibility and sand turning the sky red. Lack of visibility led to several road closures. Producers had difficulty controlling the blowing sand due to the dryness of the fields. If they plowed to stop the wind, it created powder, causing the fields to blow worse. The only remaining wheat was irrigated, with most fields entering the early boot stage. Several fields were sprayed to plant melons or cotton into the residue, and more fields were set to be sprayed over the next couple of weeks. Corn planting was expected to begin once growers could get fields wet enough. Melon planting was set to start by the end of the week or the following week. Producers continued cleaning up from the high winds, primarily focusing on maintaining livestock water sources and supplementing feed. Some began clearing brush and conducting fence maintenance in preparation for spring and summer. Cattle body condition scores were declining depending on supplemental feeding and remained fair. There was a high fire alert. Preirrigation continued for row crop fields. Alfalfa and pecans were also being irrigated. Only certain portions of the El Paso Lower Valley received effluent water from the Irrigation District due to drought. Others relied on wells typically high in salinity but necessary during drought. Rio Grande Compact water was set to be released in late May or early June.

Southwest

Dry and windy conditions persisted. No precipitation accompanied the cold front. Strong, drying winds continued to deplete soil moisture, increasing the deficit for spring green-up. Midweek saw winds reaching 40 mph, and concerns about fires continued. Cool mornings followed by mid-80s highs encouraged wildflowers and pasture forages to brighten up throughout the week. Irrigated crops were in fair condition. Planting halted in some areas due to a lack of soil moisture. Row crops were planted and emerging. Corn and sorghum planting was complete, with decent stands reported, but rain was needed. Pastures continued to decline, and supplemental feeding of livestock remained necessary. Livestock markets remained steady. Spring shearing of sheep and goats approached. Producers tried to maintain herd numbers and fed heavily. Livestock grazed some, but available forage was insufficient. Rain was in the forecast.

South

Conditions were hot and dry, with no reported rainfall. There was a greater chance of rain in the forecast. Strong winds further dried conditions and caused wind erosion in some dryland fields. Farmland remained very dry, and farmers stayed busy planting corn and grain sorghum before crop insurance deadlines. Wheat and oat crops reached the soft dough stage. Some sorghum producers delayed planting for rainfall. Corn leafhopper numbers increased. Cotton farmers continued planting where soil moisture allowed, while sunflower crops appeared in good condition. Onion and other vegetable harvests continued, though wind damage affected leafy greens. Most citrus trees set fruit, and some producers harvested and watered trees where irrigation was available. Local irrigation water canals remained closed for agricultural use. Row crop producers with planted fields needed soil moisture, and emerging crops showed signs of moisture stress. Rangeland and pastures were in poor condition, and fire danger was elevated where standing forage remained ungrazed. Hot, dry, and windy conditions parched new emerging grass and the few remaining winter weeds. Farmers and ranchers urgently needed rain. Cattle prices remained high, and producers continued supplemental feeding and hauling water to their herds to offset dry conditions. Beef cattle conditions were declining, and local markets saw a slight increase in cattle offered at sale barns as herds continued to be culled. Beef cattle producers supplemented cattle diets to maintain the body condition of cows nursing calves.