Egg prices falling ahead of Easter demand

Egg prices have been dropping, and a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert believes a continued downward trend should follow the Easter holiday.

David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station, said eggs typically reach a seasonal price peak around Easter, historically followed by price drops at grocery stores.

However, egg prices have already been on a downward trend in recent months. Wholesale prices fell from $8.51 to $3.84, or 55%, between March 1 and March 29, Anderson said.

Anderson said he is curious to see how consumer demand plays out leading into the Easter holiday when families typically dye eggs for hunts and bake for gatherings. He is also interested to see how egg prices trend after the holiday, he said.  

“For the most part, egg prices have been going down,” he said. “I think the recent downward trend and the previous highs really show the egg market volatility. That’s the nature of the egg market; prices can go up and down really fast.”

For instance, a dozen large eggs that cost over $5 in December 2022 had dropped to 84 cents per dozen by May 2023, Anderson said.

Avian flu impacts egg prices

Egg prices skyrocketed to record highs as highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI, outbreaks in commercial laying flocks impacted supplies. Wholesale prices for large Grade A eggs hit an all-time average high of $6.14 per dozen in January, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

By comparison, the same dozen eggs in January 2024 cost $2.52 per dozen. The previous price peak was $5.38 in December 2022 as the poultry industry grappled with widespread outbreaks of HPAI. 

The USDA continues to report “sporadic outbreaks” within commercial meat and egg production flocks.

Anderson said there is a clear effort within the industry to add pullet hens, which lay eggs for broilers or meat production, and laying hens for table eggs. Growers added 500,000 new pullets in February, bringing the national total to 131 million on March 1, compared to 124 million at the same time last year.

But the number of laying hens in production continued to fall, he said. There were 285 million laying hens for table egg production on March 1, down from 294 million on Feb. 1.

Consumer demand for eggs amid high prices

Anderson attributes the downward price trend to low consumer demand. Falling prices amid low laying hen numbers and, subsequently, low egg supplies signal to him that fewer eggs are being consumed.

He suspects consumers are still buying eggs but have cut back on their purchases due to historically high prices. The question is how long before consumers return to their previous purchasing habits?  

The Easter holiday could spur a demand spike, but the high cost of eggs could pressure consumers toward other options.

“Easter is a big holiday; we typically see a price bump based on egg demand for those traditional family gatherings,” he said. “The question is, are people going to put out more plastic eggs for the Easter egg hunt and maybe skip the deviled eggs this year because of high prices?”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Central

The weather was dry and mild with occasional rain. Some areas received more rainfall accompanied by high winds and hail as thunderstorms passed through. Warmer temperatures encouraged strong grass growth in pastures. Most crops were planted and had begun emerging. Corn and wheat showed signs of drought stress. At least 300 acres of cotton were planted before the rain and cold temperatures. Overall, pastures and crops developed slowly. Minimal insect and disease pressure was observed. The cattle market remained strong and steady. Ranchers took advantage of high auction prices for cow-calf pairs. Small grains were mostly grazed out, but abundant hay stocks from the previous season kept livestock in good condition.

Rolling Plains

Much-needed moisture finally arrived with totals ranging from 0.5-2 inches. Stock ponds were replenished, and soil moisture levels improved. Warmer temperatures were forecast and a strong improvement in grazing pastures was expected. Increased soil moisture also benefited farmers preparing for spring cotton planting.

Coastal Bend

A cold front arrived over the weekend. Windy conditions returned and quickly depleted topsoil moisture. Soil moisture conditions greatly improved with the rains a week prior. Warm and windy weather improved field conditions and allowed producers back into the fields. Some producers’ fields were still too wet to plant, but activities were resuming as conditions allowed. Corn planting was complete, and some replanting was possible depending on stand establishment. Sorghum planting neared completion. Cotton planting continued. Emerged crops were doing well. Rangeland and pasture conditions were mostly fair but improved rapidly with forages greening and growing. Pasture conditions showed remarkable improvement where overgrazing was not an issue. Hay consumption slowed significantly over the past week.

East

The district received a large amount of rainfall in a very short period. Flash flooding occurred in many areas. Smith County reportedly experienced rain falling at about 5 inches per hour. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Pasture and hay meadows were difficult to access due to excessive rain. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate. Warm-season grasses greened up well with moisture and warmer temperatures. Producers expressed concern about fertilizer prices. Cattle market prices remained strong overall. Livestock were in fair to good condition, with some diet supplementation occurring. Flies remained a problem. Wild pig damage increased.

Southeast

Several counties reported improved soil moisture conditions and plant growth following recent rain. Rainfall influenced rice plantings. Soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. Dry conditions and cool temperatures were a concern for some farmers. Counties experienced strong winds. Oats and wheat continued to progress. Emerged corn was in good condition, and planting continued. Sorghum planting continued, and half of the planted fields had emerged. Rice planting made some progress and upland cotton planting had not begun. Some producers applied herbicides for weed control in pastures and rangelands that were in poor to excellent condition. Livestock were in poor to excellent condition.  

South Plains

Very dry conditions and wind occurred earlier in the week. Some light rain showers and snow were received in some parts of the district. Other areas received several inches of rain and the snow ranged from 0.5-5 inches. Farmers delayed fertilizing fields due to drought. Beef cattle at local sale barns continued to set price records. Cattle were on supplemental feed. Warm-season grasses were responding to warmer weather. Wheat fields began to head and were being monitored closely for rust symptoms. Discussions on triticale harvest had begun. There was growing interest among farmers around oilseed sunflowers as a cropping option. Corn planting was expected to begin soon.

Panhandle

A cold front brought needed rain showers and a light covering of snow. Preplant tillage and fertilizer applications were underway most of the week until the rain. The short duration of freezing temperatures was not expected to impact small grain crops. The rainfall should help cool-season grain fields, including planted cover crops. Many producers and crop advisers intensified efforts to track soil temperatures for potential planting. Overall soil moisture was reported from very short to adequate. Pasture and rangeland conditions were reported from very poor to fair. Overall, crop conditions were poor to fair.

North

Topsoil and subsoil were adequate to surplus. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good throughout the counties. Temperatures dropped into the mid-40s during overnight hours, while extremely heavy winds arrived toward the end of the week, bringing rainfall to the area. Winter wheat was in fair to good condition and showed improvement. Rain benefited fruit and berry crops. Corn planting was mostly complete, and most corn fields had emerged. Livestock were doing well.

Far West

Conditions at the beginning of the week were hot and dry but changed drastically by the weekend. A strong front moved in, bringing much cooler temperatures, rain and snow. The district received up to 1 inch of rain. Higher elevations saw temperatures dip below freezing, along with snow accumulations. The second consecutive week of spring moisture was promising, and producers were hopeful the trend indicated favorable weather patterns into summer. With the cool, cloudy conditions, evaporation remained low. The district still needed significant rain to improve soil moisture and rangeland conditions. Corn emergence was slow. Melon planting was set back a week due to colder temperatures. Mesquite trees started to bloom earlier than normal. Lack of grazing caused cattle body condition scores to drop, and producers continued to supplement their diets.

West Central

Scattered showers occurred mid- to late-week, with reported totals ranging from a half inch to 4 inches. Stock tanks remained low in some areas, and the district was still in a rainfall deficit. Moisture stimulated grass green-up. Soil conditions remained variable, and additional rain was needed to further improve moisture levels. Small grains were short and drought-stressed but had begun to form seed heads. Some producers applied fertilizer or planted in anticipation of rain, while others continued spring field preparation and weed control. Wheat matured quickly due to dry weather and some wheat had already been cut and baled for hay. Dryland sorghum was planted before the rainfall. Pastures showed green-up and were responding well to the moisture and warmer temperatures. Weed spraying was widespread, and rangeland conditions were expected to improve with sunshine. Livestock were in fair to good condition, with cows calving and supplemental feeding continuing. The cattle market remained strong, with stocker steers selling $10-$15 higher per hundredweight and feeder steer prices steady. Packer cows sold $2-$3 higher per hundredweight, and bred cows and pairs remained in high demand. Ranchers continued to cull older cows while retaining heifers due to high market prices. Grazing improved with better forage availability. Wildlife were less concentrated along roadsides and had better access to grazing and water sources.

Southwest

Most areas reported trace amounts of moisture, while some areas received 1.5-2.5 inches. The previous week’s rainfall contributed to a substantial green-up of early warm-season plants and a late bloom of wildflowers. Spray rigs were running, and fertilizer applications helped improve grass growth in pastures. Gardeners were active. In Gillespie County, the area greened up significantly, reducing fire danger following the green-up, and burned areas began to recover. Row crops had emerged, and earlier-planted corn reached approximately 12 inches in height. Cotton planting was underway, while corn and grain sorghum planting were complete. Irrigated wheat looked good. Oat fields matured and started to head out. Overall, row crops benefited from recent moisture and looked good. Livestock and pastures appeared to improve with the added moisture, though continued rainfall was needed to support ongoing growth. Rangelands remained in a moisture deficit. Livestock markets were steady to higher. Livestock remained under supplementation and were in fair condition. Spring lambing and kidding were mostly complete, and livestock were grazing.

South

Conditions were favorable. Temperatures dropped to as low as 40 degrees, with high winds toward the end of the week. Wind gusts reached up to 30 mph. Rainfall ranged from 5-8 inches. Rapid green-up was evident because of the rainfall. Rangeland and pasture forages made a complete turnaround on the combination of rain and subsequent sunshine. Available grazing was expected to be adequate within a few weeks, and supplemental feeding continued for livestock. Much of the brush remained in bloom, and pear trees were flowering. Row crop farmers returned to the fields to continue planting where conditions permitted. The rains were beneficial for most crops, but some fields remained flooded, and those crops were lost. Corn stands were inconsistent, and plant heights ranged from a few inches to 15 inches in the same field due to limited ground moisture at planting. Hay producers prepared to plant hay grazers. Leafy green harvest neared completion, and onion and cabbage harvests were underway. Most of the cotton had been planted. Local irrigation canals remained closed due to drought. Stock ponds received some runoff, and some that were dry were now in good shape. Livestock were in good condition. Grass and forbs greened up, and cattle were chasing tender green growth but were not putting on weight. The beef cattle market experienced reduced offering this week, but prices and demand remained strong. Feed prices remained high at local feed stores. Cattle producers and deer breeders continued supplementing livestock and wildlife. Wildlife found more grazing in pastures and were less visible along roadsides, as watering holes were available.