Egg prices continue to climb

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, HPAI, continue to drive egg prices to record highs across the U.S., said Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.

David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station, said egg prices have skyrocketed to record highs due to ongoing supply disruptions caused by HPAI outbreaks in commercial laying flocks.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is reporting “sporadic outbreaks” within commercial meat and egg production flocks.

Since Feb. 8, 2022, more than 134.7 million birds have been lost across 1,410 flock outbreaks, including 637 commercial and 773 backyard flocks, in every U.S. state, according to USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.

Wholesale prices for large Grade A eggs hit an all-time high of $6.14 per dozen on average nationally Jan. 18, according to the latest USDA report. For perspective, the previous price peak for the same dozen eggs was $5.38 in December 2022 and $2.20 per dozen in January 2023.

Similarly, the price peak in 2023 was related to HPAI outbreaks in poultry flocks, Anderson said.

“There is seasonality to egg prices based on demand, but the cutting of supplies, in this case by disease, has driven prices higher,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go higher in the next report, but there is price volatility when you consider the supply and demand factors in play.”

Laying hen numbers impacting egg supplies

The USDA reported 304 million table egg laying hens in the U.S. flock as of Jan. 1, a 2.3% drop compared to the 311 million laying hens at the same time last year.

Greg Archer, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension poultry specialist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Poultry Science, Bryan-College Station, said the time it takes to rebuild the laying hen flock will depend on factors still in flux.

Environmental conditions are prime for the HPAI-causing pathogen, he said. The disease prefers temperatures below 90 degrees.

The poultry industry, which has dealt with multiple avian influenza outbreaks since 2015, aggressively applies its biosecurity regimens, but intermittent outbreaks continue to occur.

Archer said migratory birds have historically been the main culprit. For instance, the pathogen might be introduced to a poultry house in the form of migratory bird feces on the bottom of a shoe or from farm to farm in the tread of a feed delivery truck.

“Farmers take biosecurity seriously because they’ve been dealing with the threat for years,” he said. “The big question this time is the strain mutations and how outbreaks in poultry facilities are occurring.

Rebuilding the egg-producing flock

The recent transmission patterns have not been so clear cut, and the spread of the disease to and from dairy cows, pigs and humans has further blurred the lines for potential transmission sources, Archer said.

When it comes to replacing lost birds, Archer said it can take 20 or more weeks for birds to develop from incubated eggs to pullets to production-ready laying hens. Laying farms are typically large and can include 1 million or more birds living in several stand-alone laying houses.

If an entire farm is wiped out by the disease, Archer said farmers bring those farms back online in phases to stagger their production by new and older birds. Eggs produced by younger and older birds are typically smaller while hens in their prime lay large to jumbo eggs.

Anderson said the flock rebuild will be a contributing factor on where prices go from here.

Consumer demand amid high prices

Consumer demand for eggs had been trending upward but could wane with higher prices. The higher costs at grocery stores could also drive consumers away from more expensive niche egg categories like “cage free,” “free range” and organic until prices fall. The higher prices might also push consumers to calculate the cost-per unit difference between egg sizes like medium versus jumbo for breakfast or baking needs.

The impact of egg price increases is rippling into restaurants, bakeries and driving decisions and price increases across other markets, he said. The good news for consumers is that these disease-driven price spikes are temporary, historically.

For instance, by May 2023 the dozen large eggs that cost over $5 the previous December had dropped to 84 cents per dozen, Anderson said.

“Producers will be expanding their flocks to produce more eggs to meet demand and capitalize on the high prices, while consumers might cut back,” he said. “That combination aligning with fewer instances of avian influenza as the weather warms up would likely put downward pressure on prices. There is a natural ebb and flow to egg prices from seasonal supply and demand, and HPAI has just added volatility to the market.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Central

The district experienced freezing temperatures with snow and sleet, and more cold weather was anticipated. Recent rainfall provided some runoff for ponds. Wheat and oats were grazed short and needed moisture. Ranchers reported good winter forage availability. Farmers were in their fields putting down fertilizer and preparing to plant. The pecan harvest was nearing completion. There was an increase in livestock supplementation with the cold temperatures.

Rolling Plains

Farmers across the district reported a fair to good wheat stand. Given the late planting, very few stocker calves were turned out on wheat pastures so far. Cattle looked good, but supplemental feeding of hay and cubes was increasingly necessary as pasture grazing declined. Everyone was thankful for the snow received, but much more precipitation will be needed in the coming weeks to provide adequate topsoil moisture for wheat.

Coastal Bend

A severe cold front was expected to move in. Wet weather brought 2-3 inches of beneficial rainfall across the district. Field crop producers were preparing for the upcoming planting season by checking equipment and receiving seed. Winter pastures greatly improved due to the recent rainfall, providing much-needed forage for livestock. However, livestock producers were still supplementing diets with hay and protein, especially as some herds began calving. Wet conditions combined with the upcoming freeze may pose additional challenges for producers.

East

Producers were preparing for the brutally cold weather forecasted. They were stocking up on hay as well as feed and/or protein supplements. Cattle markets were strong with high prices. Livestock were in fair to good condition with supplementation taking place. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate.

South Plains

The district received light snow, ice and rain in most areas over the past week that helped soil moisture levels and winter wheat. Most areas could use more moisture as producers prepare the ground for the upcoming growing season. Cattle were on supplemental feed and in good condition. There was a severe cold front moving into the area. A slight chance of snow was in the forecast, but no significant amount of moisture was expected. Subzero temperatures could have detrimental effects on livestock, especially lactating cows. Producers who have begun calving were concerned about new calves amid high winds and frigid temperatures. Cold temperatures and high input costs were delaying some fieldwork, but some producers were preparing for planting. Producers were discussing crop considerations for the coming season.

Panhandle

Overall soil moisture was short to adequate. The district received 4-8 inches of snow that should benefit topsoil moisture. Planted small grain fields had emerged and were making good progress; however, recent dips in daytime temperatures will slow the rate of growth. Fields planted as cover crops needed additional moisture. The supplemental feeding of cattle continued. Pasture and range conditions were poor to fair. Overall crops were poor to fair.

North

Counties reported adequate subsoil and topsoil moisture levels. Pasture and range conditions were mostly fair to good. Temperatures dropped significantly across the district. Several counties received beneficial snow, sleet and rain, but some areas missed the wintery mix of moisture. Some limbs from trees, especially pine trees, were downed. Winter forages were in decent condition and holding steady in some counties despite freezing temperatures. The freezing conditions lasted multiple days, set grass growth back and may ultimately affect final crop height and quality. Livestock were faring well and weathering the wintery conditions in good shape. Low to medium levels of Hessian fly were reported in some wheat fields.

Far West

The district needed rain to improve soil moisture levels and rangeland conditions. Extremely cold temperatures with lows in the upper teens were reported. Daytime highs still reached the mid-60s. Extremely high winds approaching 50 mph caused a dust storm over a large area. Damage assessments in wheat were expected to be taken during coming weeks. Only about 60% of planted wheat fields had emerged, and about 70% of that had not tillered. All cotton was harvested and much of the crop had been ginned but many modules were still waiting. Fieldwork was beginning in preparation for the upcoming growing season. Pecan harvest was winding down. Livestock were in fair condition, and producers were increasing supplemental feed to maintain body conditions through the cold spell.

West Central

Conditions remained very dry. Days were warm with cool nights, but very cold weather was in the forecast. Producers’ preparations for the cold weather were underway. Recent snow and rain brought good moisture for winter pastures and winter wheat. Many areas received trace amounts of rain up to 0.75 inch. Winter wheat and other cool-season forages benefited from recent moisture, with stocker cattle grazing. Some winter wheat was in fair to poor condition and needed additional moisture. Stock tanks were running low, and grazing options were limited in some areas. Supplemental feeding of livestock increased drastically due to the lack of grazing in some areas. Livestock were in good condition despite the conditions.

Southwest

Conditions remained very dry across most parts of the district. The cold front delivered 0.30-1.5 inches of precipitation, with no runoff reported. Rivers were flowing slightly more compared to the previous week. Temperatures warmed slightly, with lows in the 40s at night and daytime highs in the upper 50s. Although temperatures had returned to more mild conditions, a hard freeze was reported on back-to-back days, causing minimal damage. Dry conditions contributed to declining pasture and range conditions. Small grain plantings had largely failed due to insufficient rainfall. While some tall grass remained in pastures, winter weeds were absent, and standing grass lacked in nutritional value for livestock. Dry conditions combined with high winds increased wildfire risks. Lambing and kidding began under cold temperatures, and supplemental feeding of livestock had resumed. Livestock body conditions remained fair to good overall. A strong arctic front was expected to bring frigid conditions but limited precipitation.