Hay supplies mixed, new crop outlook hinges on rainfall

Current hay supplies across the state depend on conditions of winter-planted forage crops and rainfall, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.

Winter forages such as ryegrass and oats have helped supplement hay feeding, while ranchers who opted not to plant winter forage crops have relied solely on available hay supplies.

“It’s hit or miss, depending on rainfall received across Texas,” said Vanessa Corriher-Olson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension state forage specialist and professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Overton. “East Texas received some good moisture later in the fall, but some folks didn’t. It’s really a question of how many folks planted winter forage this fall and didn’t get the needed rainfall. They are relying more on feeding hay than in the past.”

Hay prices, production outlook

Corriher-Olson said hay prices have been moderate over the past year.

“They have not been exceptionally high, and I haven’t heard anyone complain,” she said. “(Prices) are reasonable, considering everything else compared to other input costs. Supplies right now in East Texas have been sufficient.”

Prospects for a good hay production season hinge on moisture and the amount of fertilizer applied. That decision will vary from producer to producer, Corriher-Olson said.

“Even if we do have good moisture, people may decide to step back on fertilizer and nitrogen applications,” she said. “If they do, that’s going to have an effect on harvest yields. It remains to be seen, but the big question marks are weather and costs such as fertilizer, herbicide, equipment and diesel.

“Those who invest in fertilizer and receive rainfall will have good production. Those who step back may not have as much hay production. Really, only time will tell.”

Meanwhile, a substantial hay harvest in Central and South-Central Texas last year is proving to pay dividends, considering the dry pattern producers experienced this winter. That’s led to more hay feeding supplementing the lack of available forage.

“Our region saw a bountiful spring 2024 hay season, leaving many producers with a surplus of hay for winter feeding,” said Kara Matheney, AgriLife Extension agent for Washington County.  

“We have been dry for a while and producers have been feeding hay steadily through the winter months — not due to extreme cold but to dry conditions that prevented planting or reduced stands of winter grazing like rye and oats.”

Matheney said rainfall has been less than adequate this winter, presenting challenges.

“Soil moisture can still be classified as marginal at best, and subsoil moisture is inadequate. We are hopeful for spring rains to help kick off a plentiful growing season for our warm-season grasses but the weather outlooks have a few more opportunities for cooler weather on the horizons for us.”  

Chadd Caperton, AgriLife Extension agent for Brazos County, said producers in the Brazos Valley region went into winter with abundant hay supplies after a successful hay harvest season.

“Hay supplies are in good shape so far due to last year’s bumper crop,” Caperton said. “I’m advising producers to be mindful of the moisture situation going into the spring as we are behind.”

Bobby McCool, AgriLife Extension agent for San Patricio County, said hay supplies are good for now.

“However, those with good hay supplies are not selling as much due to the dry spell we are in and are concerned with ensuring they have enough to get through it,” he said. “West of us, they are hurting for forage and hay. They have been without rain for a while in spots.”

Fertilizer, input costs

Corriher-Olson stressed the importance of producers getting soil samples before making fertilizer purchases.

“I want to reiterate the importance of a soil sample since it tells not only how much nitrogen is needed, but phosphorus and potassium needs,” she said. “For a $12 test, it’s inexpensive compared to the cost of fertilizer. AgriLife Extension can make nitrogen recommendations based on a desired forage production goal, but phosphorus, potassium and lime shouldn’t be applied without a soil test.”

A pasture deficiency in potassium can become the limiting factor in forage production, Corriher-Olson said.

“Despite doing everything else right, a producer can see an impact on yield if the soil is deficient in a single nutrient like potassium,” she said. “Thinning of Bermuda grass stands due to potassium deficiency even if applying high rates of nitrogen can be common in sandy soils. The cheapest and easiest thing anyone can do in making fertilizer decisions is a soil test.”

Nitrogen prices in June 2024 ran $450-$530 a ton. Nitrogen is still approximately $450 a ton. Phosphorus prices in 2024 were $700-$800 a ton. Currently, phosphorus prices are the same as 2024 running $700-$800 ton.

“One thing people need to keep in mind is any changes in tariffs and how they can have an effect on the fertilizer market,” Corriher-Olson said. “It’s a world market, things going on beyond and outside Texas can affect us.”

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Central

An unusually warm and windy weather pattern followed recent rainfall, which along with warmer weather, encouraged some grass growth, though topsoil remained dry. Some winter wheat was sprayed for broadleaf weeds. Preemergence herbicide application for sandburs in hay fields was underway. Stock tanks remained low. Short chill hours and above-average warmth raised concerns about early budding in many fruit trees. Wheat and oats looked good, though much of the acreage was grazed by stocker cattle. Some corn planting had begun. Many beef herds started calving. The cattle market remained strong and supplemental feeding continued.

Rolling Plains

The regions’ wheat crop faced severe challenges due to a lack of rainfall. High temperatures fluctuated with more seasonal conditions in a roller-coaster pattern. Livestock supplemental feeding continued for both native grass and wheat pastures. Nearly all counties reported a critical need for rain to improve wheat conditions across the district.

Coastal Bend

Scattered showers provided little rain, and temperatures remained in the 80s. Some farmers began planting corn, while others finished fertilizer applications and prepared seedbeds for sorghum. Pasture conditions remained poor with limited winter forage growth due to a lack of moisture. Supplemental feeding was in full swing and hay supplies were adequate but not widely available for purchase. Cattle remained in fair condition.

East

Unusually hot weather swept through the area, helping forages green up and progress. Recent rainfall also supported growth. Ponds, lakes and creeks were full. Pasture and rangeland conditions were good with adequate subsoil and topsoil moisture. The cattle market remained strong, though Houston County reported lower prices for cattle under 400 pounds, possibly due to quality. Livestock were in fair to good condition with supplementation ongoing.

Southeast

Parts of the district experienced wet conditions with fluctuating cold and warm temperatures. Livestock were in fair condition, but pasture moisture levels continued to hinder growth. In contrast, Waller and Brazos counties benefited from warmer temperatures, allowing ryegrass and legumes to emerge and providing much-needed livestock forage. Despite these improvements, some counties, like Lee and Hardin, faced either dry conditions or soggy ground with standing water remaining an issue. Hardin County struggled with swollen reservoirs; even with temperatures rising into the high 80s, humidity prevented wet areas from drying. Jefferson County reported ongoing wet conditions but signs of drying, while Burleson County focused on the upcoming planting season. Pasture and rangeland ratings ranged from 10% to 80% very poor condition. Montgomery County reported 100% fair conditions. Galveston County rated 50% of pastures as good, while Brazoria and Waller counties rated 50% as poor. Soil moisture levels across the district ranged from 10% very short in Lee County to 100% adequate in Galveston County. Brazoria County reported 30% short soil moisture. In Montgomery County, 50% of oats were in good condition, but none had headed. Both Montgomery and Jefferson counties had 100% of their winter wheat planted and emerged, with Montgomery County reporting its wheat as 100% good and Jefferson County rated its wheat as 50% fair and 50% poor.

South Plains

Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels remained low due to a lack of recent rainfall. Producers were watering to help bring up the wheat during the hot spell. Ground preparation for the upcoming crop year was underway. Cattle were reported to be in good condition.

Panhandle

The district experienced record-high temperatures. Warm days, adequate soil moisture and sunny conditions favored the growth of small grains and cool-season crops. Improved and native pastures also benefited. Surface-applied compost continued on some fields, including fallow land and those at various growth stages after fall planting of cool-season cover crops. Livestock producers supplemented cattle with protein and hay. Late-planted dryland wheat was not large enough for grazing. Soil moisture levels ranged from very short to adequate. Pasture and rangeland conditions were reported as very poor to fair, while overall crop conditions ranged from poor to good.

North

Topsoil and subsoil were reported as adequate to short across the district. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Temperatures fluctuated throughout the week. No significant rainfall occurred, but moisture remained high. Winter wheat was in fair condition, with growth expected to accelerate in early March. Winter crops were still recovering from the cold snap a few weeks ago. Rain and warmer temperatures were expected in the coming weeks. Ryegrass thrived, and most corn acres were prepped, except for a few persistently wet areas still needing preparation. Livestock remained in good condition. Most were still on hay due to the lack of cool-season grass planting or fertilized wheat/ryegrass pastures. Spring calving was in full swing. No major disease or insect outbreaks were reported.

Far West

Unseasonably warm temperatures prevailed this week, with highs reaching the mid-80s in upper elevations and mid-90s in lower areas, setting record highs across the district. These temperatures caused Bermuda grass in lawns to begin greening. High winds led to blowing fields. Producers continued working the ground to prevent topsoil loss. No prewatering had begun and few were expected to start due to ongoing dry conditions. The wheat crop continued to decline weekly. The pecan harvest was nearly complete. The district remained in dire need of rain to improve soil moisture and rangeland conditions. Livestock were in fair condition, with producers continuing subsistence feeding. Stock pond levels held steady but required additional precipitation for long-term pasture improvement. Sheep were being sheared, and lambing had begun.

West Central

Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions created challenges across the region with all areas needing rain. The warm weather quickly dried out the topsoil moisture, while a “false spring” occurred with daytime temperatures in the 80s and cool nights in the 60s. Despite small amounts of rain and warmer weather over the past couple of weeks, conditions were still dry. The forecast for the coming week showed chances of rain and cooler temperatures, with some areas possibly experiencing below-freezing temperatures. Soil moisture had rapidly dried out due to warm weather and winds, leaving the area in dire need of more rain as planting season approached. The winter wheat crop struggled without sufficient moisture. Pasture and rangeland conditions were poor with very few cool-season grasses growing. Some field preparation for spring planting of forages had begun. The wheat crop provided good grazing for cattle, but it remained in desperate need of moisture. Small grains showed slight improvement after recent rainfall; wind conditions hampered further growth. The mild winter had caused some fruit trees to bloom prematurely. Though winter wheat was fair, it needed rain soon to recover from the dry conditions. Grass began to green up slightly, but the district still faced a critical lack of rain and running water, especially in Coke County, where poor conditions for winter wheat production and rangeland regrowth persisted. Ranchers continued supplemental feeding to sustain livestock through the winter months.

Southwest

Conditions remained dry, with a few cool days bringing heavy fog and light mist, totaling only a few hundredths of an inch over several days. The latter part of the week was unseasonably warm, with temperatures reaching the mid-to-upper 80s, tying previous records for this time of year. The warm weather and slight moisture continued to promote cool-season grass and forb growth in rangelands and pastures. Producers began preparing for warm-season growth in the coming months. Wheat progressed slowly, and corn planting was set to begin soon. Livestock markets remained high, and supplemental feeding continued. Spring calving, lambing and kidding were underway. Cooler temperatures and a slight chance of rain were expected in the upcoming week.

South

Conditions were unseasonably warm and mostly dry throughout the district. Light rain showers occurred intermittently but were not measurable. Soil moisture was still inadequate in some areas, especially in the subsoil layers. Most fields had dried enough on the surface for some farmers to begin planting. Warmer temperatures encouraged winter weed growth and slight greening of bunch grasses. While some trees and shrubs began early greening, overall rangeland conditions were poor due to low soil moisture and above-average temperatures in recent weeks. Some fields had germinated row crops about 6 inches tall. Row crop producers were actively planting corn and grain sorghum, taking advantage of existing soil moisture before it diminished. However, some farmers considered delaying corn planting until mid-February or waiting for significant rainfall. Leafy greens were being harvested. Reports indicated little to no freeze damage to citrus fruit from the recent cold snap, but the full impact on citrus trees remained unclear. Young trees showed leaf burn and bark splitting. Corn leafhoppers continued to be found in volunteer corn despite the freeze. Field preparations continued. Ranchers remained active, marketing cattle due to record prices and persistent drought. Supplemental feeding for beef cattle continued with hay, range cubes, prickly pear burning and molasses/protein/mineral tubs due to poor rangeland and pasture conditions. Some ranchers had begun hauling water as stock tank levels remained low. Hay demand was high, with prices reaching $100 per round bale. The local auction barn saw increased cattle and calf runs, with strong prices across all classes. Deer breeders provided protein, corn and cottonseed, while some landowners with wildlife operations began feeding protein to white-tailed deer after a stressful rut. Wildlife remained active throughout the district.