Soil moisture conditions expected to worsen across state

While many areas of the state received badly needed rains weeks ago, most of the benefits to agricultural producers are evaporating due to less than adequate rain and higher-than-normal temperatures statewide.

The previous rains were a boon for agricultural producers and helped with some crop plantings and establishment, but soil moisture levels in many parts of the state have deteriorated since, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.

This reversal of fortune and shifting weather patterns means growing conditions through winter could be subpar for some cool-season crops like wheat for grazing. And drier soils coupled with a drier and warmer fall and winter weather pattern could spell less than optimal planting conditions for next spring. 

Mark Welch, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist for grain marketing in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station, said the weather has been transitioning back to a La Niña pattern with drier and warmer than normal weather that will likely last through the coming winter.

“Unfortunately, at the current time dry soil conditions are on the increase from the Southern Panhandle, Rolling Plains and across North Texas just as we are planting and getting ready to plant the 2025 wheat crop,” he said.

Drought stress impacts grain crops

Welch said the impact of the current drought and stressful conditions throughout Texas have also greatly affected corn and sorghum.

“While final statewide production numbers are not in, we began to see a much earlier-than-normal start to harvest, which is generally not a good sign,” Welch said. “Sorghum harvest in Texas at the end of June was 27% and the National Agricultural Statistics Service had never before reported that early of a sorghum harvest.”

By Sept. 8, 75% of Texas corn had been harvested. Welch said that was the earliest date to reach that benchmark going back at least 40 years.

“The current estimate of the Texas sorghum yield is 53 bushels per acre, better than the 49 last year but below the 58 bushel 10-year average,” Welch said. “And Texas corn is estimated at 121 bushels, just below the 122 bushels per acre last year and below the 126-bushel average.”

The percent harvested for both sorghum and corn was lower than normal as well, and Welch said the lower yields were associated with stressful growing conditions.

From wet to dry soil conditions

Emi Kimura, Ph.D., associate professor and AgriLife Extension agronomist and peanut specialist in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences based in Vernon, said the soil is very dry in her region after receiving zero rain in August and less than 1 inch in September.

Kimura said dryland cotton is under severe stress due to the lack of water and high August temperatures.

“Although the temperature cooled down a little in September, we still had days that were above 100 degrees,” she said. “We are waiting for rain before planting the wheat.”

Reagan Noland, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension agronomist and associate professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences in San Angelo, said most of West Texas was extremely dry through August, but did receive some good rainfall in early September.

“The rain helped to germinate volunteer wheat and weeds for growers,” he said. “Some growers were able to plant and establish fall grazing crops, like wheat or oats, with this moisture.”

However, he said, at this time soil conditions are variable across the region and while some areas have adequate moisture to plant, others are already once again too dry for planting.

Larry Stein, Ph.D., professor and AgriLife Extension horticulture specialist in the Department of Horticultural Sciences based in Uvalde, said the southwestern area of the state has received hit and miss rains, with some beneficial rain falling in the Winter Garden region.

“After this brief cooling period, the daytime temperatures for both highs and lows have been higher than usual,” he said. “We have had 95 degrees or higher temperatures, and daily high temperatures have been several degrees warmer than what is typical for this time of year.”

However, Stein said the earlier rain and brief cool-down did allow for better stand establishment on cabbage with spinach, greens and onion plantings expected to begin soon. 

“The scattered rains did allow for some pre-watering of fields, which should help stand establishment for these crops,” he said. “In addition, the landscape looks better with some greening and improved forages that will help livestock producers.”

But make no mistake, he said, the drought is still lingering in this area.

In one of the few bright spots for soil conditions in the state, recent rain in the Lower Rio Grande Valley helped leach salts in vegetable fields, provided citrus groves some relief and pastures and hay operations with much-needed rainfall. 

Juan Anciso, Ph.D., professor and AgriLife Extension vegetable specialist in the Department of Horticultural Sciences based in Weslaco, said the rain should also help fall vegetable planting in South Texas, which is underway with cabbage and some leafy greens.

“However, the availability of irrigation water is still the biggest concern this upcoming vegetable season will face due to soil moisture conditions,” he said. “Some growers have enough irrigation water and others do not.”  

Anciso expects vegetable acreage in the Lower Rio Grande Valley will be reduced compared to last year, in large part due to irrigation water concerns.

“The usual September rains provided some relief locally but have done very little for the two reservoirs in the watershed area as these have been relatively low,” he said.

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Central

Half of the district experienced excellent rain that greened up pastures, filled lakes and tanks, and generally improved conditions. The other half faced dry conditions and increasing drought. The entire district did experience a slight drop in temperatures. Some fields were too wet to plow, and pastures showed an increase in invasive weeds. The pecan and peanut harvests began, and winter grain planting started. The cotton harvest continued, and fall armyworms were noticed in hay fields. Livestock thrived on pastures in areas that received rain, with cattle remaining in good body condition. Producers began feeding hay and supplementing in areas where pasture conditions were declining.

Rolling Plains

The district faced hot and dry weather that significantly impacted local vegetation and crops. Oak trees were suffering from dieback and low acorn production, while pecans were small and sparse. Wheat struggled due to insufficient water, although plantings increased after some recent rains. Pests like grasshoppers and armyworms were a concern. The cotton crop declined due to the lack of rain. Livestock were receiving feed supplementation. Early planted wheat was doing well in some areas. Overall conditions remained extremely dry, with some wheat being replanted due to washout. Hay fields benefited from cooler temperatures and recent rain.

Coastal Bend

Scattered thunderstorms improved moisture in parts of the district. Temperatures continued to be in the 90s, and drying conditions persisted. Field preparations continued for most operations. There were a few wet spots, but for the most part soil moisture conditions were drier than desired. Rangeland and pasture conditions remained good for most operations, but dry conditions were impacting growth. Armyworms showed up in some fields and pastures. Fall tillage was underway for corn fields. Acres planted for winter pasture were expected to be low this year due to an abundance of hay. Livestock continued to do well where grass was available and forage management was good. Fall cattle working continued, with large numbers being sold at area sale barns.

East

The district experienced a few showers and cooler temperatures but needed moisture. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate to short. Hay production slowed, and producers began to prepare for planting winter pastures. Cattle market prices were lower, and livestock were in fair to good condition. Armyworm infestations remained a significant problem for forage producers. Anderson County reported severe damage by feral hogs.

Southeast

Some areas received showers, but many counties experienced a lack of rain, leading to increased drought conditions and signs of stress in pastures. Available forages for grazing were limited and some pastures looked overgrazed. Some teal ducks were spotted over rice fields. The last round of summer forage harvest continued. Most cotton was defoliated in preparation for harvest, while cotton harvest wrapped in some areas with yields averaging 3 bales per acre. Rice harvest progressed, but the last rice was not maturing as quickly as farmers would like. Some organic and late-planted conventional rice remained unharvested. The corn harvest was complete, with one county reporting yields over 140 bushels per acre. Most pastures, ponds and cattle were still in good shape.

South Plains

Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were declining in most areas due to a lack of recent rainfall. High temperatures were in the low 90s, and lows ranged from the mid-60s to low-70s. Wheat planting continued. Cotton was progressing and bolls were opening. Many irrigated cotton farmers started to apply defoliants to their fields. Some dryland fields could be defoliated and harvested, but yield returns were estimated to be less than a bale per acre. Armyworms continued to be a problem with several wheat fields experiencing major infestations. Pumpkins were still being harvested, and peanuts were nearing the end with producers expected to begin digging soon. Cattle were in good condition.

Panhandle

Some counties received scattered showers, while others received measurable rainfall. Conditions overall were favorable for the final phases of maturity for most crops. Harvesting of feed grains got underway and continued in fields targeted for forage-silage. Corn harvest continued. Cotton harvest was expected to begin after the first killing frost, which typicall takes place around Oct. 10. Pastures started to show signs of dormancy with little grazing quality. Overall soil moisture was very short to adequate. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair and crops were poor to good.

North

The district received some much-needed rainfall along with cooler temperatures. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels were adequate to short. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good for most counties. The rain helped some pond levels, sprouted annual weeds and greened up some areas. Summer crops were nearly harvested with corn and hay harvests continuing. Wheat, ryegrass and oats were planted for forage. Producers prepared to start weaning spring-born calves, and some began feeding hay in pastures with little forage. Livestock remained in good condition and pastures were doing well in most areas. Fall armyworms and grasshoppers were still in in some areas.

Far West

Temperatures reached 95 degrees with lows in the 70s. Another string of showers came through but totals ranged from nothing to 1 inch, with the majority around the 0.4-inch mark. A few cotton fields were sprayed with defoliant, and spraying was expected to pick up significantly soon. Bolls were much smaller than desired, but yields were anticipated to be better than last year. Wheat planting continued and emergence was mostly good. Fall armyworms began to show up in spots. Pecans maintained a good load with large nuts, suggesting a good yield at harvest. Pastures gradually greened up but grass growth was limited, and livestock were in fair condition. Many area beef cattle producers thinned their herds due to less-than-ideal forage supplies.

West Central

The area received some rainfall and much-needed moisture. More fall-like temperatures finally arrived, with nighttime lows in the upper-50s to low-60s and afternoon highs in the upper 80s. Soil moisture was adequate in most areas, but some areas needed additional rainfall. Some fields needed to dry some before wheat planting could resume.

Southwest

Conditions were hot and humid with no rain and some relief from cooler morning temperatures. Nighttime temperatures dropped into the mid-50s to 60s in some areas. There was no rain and soils were drying and beginning to crack. Row crop harvests were complete. Pastures were going dormant and forage quality declined due to the dry conditions. Wildlife activity started to pick up as oaks and wild pecans began to drop nuts and acorns. White-tailed deer became more active. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. Overall, livestock and wildlife remained in good condition.

South

Conditions were seasonably hot, with lower humidity and little to no rain reported. Some areas reported moderate weather conditions with cooler temperatures in the morning and highs reaching 90 degrees throughout the day. Topsoil and subsoil moisture conditions were short to adequate. Row crop farmers continued to work their ground in preparation for next year’s crop. Cotton harvest was complete in some counties and continued in others. Sesame harvest was complete or neared completion. Peanuts were maturing and close to harvest. Citrus was doing well and fruit continued to mature, and there were reports of fruit fly activity on citrus. Fall corn was in excellent condition, and cool-season vegetables looked good. Hay fields were under irrigation and nearing the next cutting. Forage producers were hoping for one more cutting and were on the lookout for armyworms and other pests. Some pastures were yielding fairly well and in good shape, while rangeland and pasture conditions were slowly declining due to a lack of rainfall in some areas. Beef cattle producers continued to provide supplemental feed in some areas that lacked adequate grazing. Cattle prices remained high and steady. Wildlife were receiving supplemental feed and were a little more active despite the heat.